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Nov. 26 – Case Study The July Crisis.docx

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University of Toronto Mississauga
Political Science
Todd Hall

Nov. 27 – Case Study: The July Crisis 1) Backgrounder - Results of WW1 (July 28, 1914 – November 11, 1918): o First global conflict: fighting in Europe, Africa and Asia o 16 million dead o Map of Europe redrawn – Ottoman Empire broken apart, Austria-Hungary broken apart; ended dynasties o Continuing puzzle for IR theories - WWI is argued to be an accident - Sequence of events o June 28, 1914: Archduke Franz Ferdinand assassinated in Sarajevo o July 28: Austria-Hungary declares war on Serbia ..... 2) Third Image Explanations A. Multipolarity – Neo-realism (Waltz)  Unstable multipolarity  Entanglements, more likely to misjudge = result in conflict B. Rising Powers – Power transition theory: shifting centers of power  Germany wanted more international prestige and be hegemony of Europe  Shift of rising German power vis-a-vis Britain explains outbreak of WW1  Others argue that it is actually Russia • Was helping France in terms of building military capabilities  Russia was growing in strength and if Germany didn’t act, it would be encircled C. Missing Institutions – Neo-Liberal Institutionalism  Lack of institutions  Post war = creates institutions with purpose of preventing conflict – League of Nations D. Wendt’s Constructivism: Hobbesian Culture  Culture of killed or be killed => this helped contribute to possibility og war being thinkable and acceptable 3) Dyadic Approaches A. Offense-Defense Balance  Perceived advantage of the offensive  Look at Germany: had Russia on the east and France on the west • Did not believe they had the resources to fight a two-front war • Schlieffen Plan: small force to the east to hold off Russians and then send mass of forces through Belgium into France. Once defeated France, then move the rest back to Russia. Why would this work? Russia would be slow in mobilizing troops to Germany. Thought this would buy Germany enough time to knock out French and then focus on Russia. • Therefore, there was an incentive to strike fast and move quickly. • Offense was seen as quicker, cheaper and better than
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