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Lecture 10

BIOC63Fall2013 Lecture 10 Notes.docx

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University of Toronto Scarborough
Biological Sciences
Karen Williams

BIOC63Fall2013 Lecture 10 Notes: Global Change Climate Change o Climate has the greatest impact on area where there are colder climates like the Arctic (including Canda) 1. Greenhouse effect and their effectiveness o Troposphere (10 km high) contains CO 2nd can reflect outgoing solar radiation back to the Earth o o o Halocarbons are extremely effective  12000 x more than CO 2  NO  200x CO 2  Methane  20x CO 2  H 2  0.5x CO 2 o Current [CO2] is 395 ppm  36% above pre-industrial time 1  2. Global warming x changing precipitation o Spatial variability of trends in Temp and precipitation o o The farther north you go the higher the increase in temperature o Around the equator, temperature has gone down o Precipitation also increased in the northern parts o Dry areas, further decreased also (orange) 3. Effects on physiology o Looking at 3 groups of plants o C3 = basic one o C4 = more efficient use of water o CAM photosynthetic pathway  used in photosynthetic plants in the desert o The least photosynthetic efficient (C3) plants show more growth under increased carbon dioxide conditions than under normal conditions o The more efficient ones, have smaller increase, because they are already good at what theyre doing Effect of Increasing: melting of boreal landscape 2 o o Causes ice and permafrost areas to melt o Increase temperature has an effect on decomposers o Decomposition of un-decomposed plant material now occurs in former permafrost soils o Soil was formerly permaforsted, now can decompose o o decomposition under aerobic and anaerobic conditions produce different side produces – like methane and CO2 o Methane is 20x more potent as a GHG than2CO o Positive feedback further increases global warming o Overall effect of climate change = stressed out areas further decrease by up to 10% NPP 4. Effect on Phenology o Phonological changes in Wisconsin o o Phenology  timing of activities in different species (when do they mate, when do they migrate etc.) o Plants bloom earlier, birds migrate earlier now 3 o 5. Effects on Distributions o Observed latitudinal changes: o 27 southern bird species o 9 moved north o 2 moved south o 16 havent moved o modelled latitudinal changes in BC o o o tree species o Benefiting o ponderosa pine, interior cedar-hemlock, interior douglas-fir, bunchgrass o losing o boreal white/black spruce forest o sub-boreal spruce forest o modelled latitudinal change – sugar maple o o blue = 700 ppm of CO2, yellow area = 375 ppm o As we double the CO2 concentration to 700, the blue area will be the optimal distribution are of sugar maple o It doesn’t mean in the yellow area it will fully die out and dissappear, but it not be as near
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