PHLA10H3 Lecture Notes - Lecture 8: Decision Matrix, Pragmatism, Expected Utility Hypothesis

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3 Feb 2013
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Prudential reason: rational to try to believe, even though you think the proposition in question is very improbable. Evidential reason: no reason to believe proposition is true, due to lack of evidence. Multiply the chance of the action succeeding by the payoff" (utility) of the successful outcome: example: if you can randomly draw an ace of spades from a standard deck of cards (52 cards), you win ,000,000. Chance of not winning: (52 1)/52 = 51/52. Expected utility = ,230: thus, the payoff is so huge and the cost is so small, that it is a great gamble you are willing to take. Describes how an agent should choose among different available actions by seeing what the utilities are of the different outcomes; presenting a prudential reason to believe in god: payoff matrix: To determine expected utility, take the probability of god existing, p(g) = , and suppose. Chapters 10 and 11: expected utility of payoff matrix:

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