PSYA01H3 Lecture Notes - Lecture 3: Lie Detection, David Foster Wallace, Devaluation
Document Summary
Decisions are easier when we can predict the future. We can best predict the future by making sound inferences. When we are designing better ways to make judgments and decisions, we have to understand which errors people typically make. Handing out forms to help people make a decision etc. Mental shortcuts/rules of thumb for making judgments process people use / availability how easily it comes to mind, set of beliefs etc. Heuristics are good enough much of the time. We are more likely to overestimate the likelihood, frequency, and causal impact of things that: have come to mind frequently or recently, are the focus of our attention, spring easily to mind. We are more likely to overestimate the likelihood, frequency, or causal impact of things that we"ve thought of frequently or recently. e. g. in a 1997 survey, more than 50% of americans disagreed that. This country is finally beginning to make some progress in solving the crime problem.
