POL208Y1 NOV 22.docx

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12 Apr 2012
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POL208Y1
DETERENCE NUCLEAR
Ronald Reagan’s Star Wars initiative 1983 to develop the technology necessary to
create a military shield against nuclear warfare
Scientific community thought it to be ridiculous because of the technological
complexities of such an act
The USSR never intended to knock down 90%
& Said they were dealing with the missiles remaining from the USA
DETERENCE “IF YOU WANT PEACE, PREPARE FOR WAR”—the realist view
Assumes rationality and predictability backwards induction
For deterrence to work the threat has to be credible; the signals have to be
clear and credible and to be understood as such by the target (china in
Korea) convince the other side that they will counteract
The target has to be deterrable (terrorism) DETERENCE THROUGH
PUNISHMENT| CUBA UNABLE TO DEFEND A MILITARY ENVASION
Conventional deterrence; nuclear deterrence (Waltz)
Direct deterrence; extended deterrence usually through an alliance, NATO,
SEATO, CENTO) ATTACK ON NATO = massive international counteraction
STATES MUST BE WILLING TO TAKE BLUFFS
YOU CANNOT DETER TERRORISTS!!! They can obtain weapons of mass
destruction! They are hidden, and are UNdeterrable because of that
Proportionality? NO. Even a conventional attack has repercussions
1945-49 USA has nuclear monopoly Deterring communist actions
EISENHOWER massive retaliation (KOREA)
KENNEDYFlexible response (Cuba)attempts to expand soviet
influence would not be met by nuclear retaliation, in hopes that this
would not escalade to nuclear confrontation
Nixon- Détente (SALT I)lessening of tension between two
adversaries & the strategic arms limitations clause… that both USSR
and USA recognize the current arrangement and power distribution
was stable
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Reagan strategic defense initiative (SDI, Star Wars)argued that if
the current arrangement is relatively stable…why not cut it in half.
STRATEGIC ARMS DETERENCE TREATIES into Strategic ARMS
REDUCTION treaties
o POST cold war era was deteriorating
o 3rd world developing nuclear weapons
George W. BushNMD (unilateral withdrawal from the ABM treaty)
OBAMA- Prague Speech TO HAVE A NUCLEAR FREE WORLD?
USA has spent a lot of money in nuclear research
DOES DETERENCE WORK?
Failed deterrence is easy to observe
How does one observe a successful deterrence?
THE NUCLEAR TABOO
Limited wars (real war, Korea, war by proxy vs. direct confrontation)
No first use
Tactical nukes--
First wave vs. 2nd wave of proliferation INDIA first to do this (the
nuclear five; India, Pakistan, Israel, South Africa, North Korea, Iraq,
Iran)
Technical nuclear weapons, weapons through punishment
Used against targets behind the battle lines behind the battlefield lines…
Tactical nuclear weaponsoffer easier transition
The invitation for its neighbours to make use of and use it to their advantage
The SECURITY DILEMMA:
ARMS CTLRL & DISARMAMENT
Arms ctrl. Vs. disarmament
The prisoner’s dilemma- cab we trust the other sides? The
importance of verification
1963 Partial Test Ban Treaty
1968 NPT The Atoms for Peace (Non proliferation treaty)
1972 SALT I (THE STRATEGIC ARMS LIMITATION TALKS ABM
TREATY)
1987 INF (Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces) Disarmament
Chemical and biological weapons
ISRAEL DID NOT SIGN ON TO A ‘SALT’
Nothing new under the sun?
Waltz
Is proliferation bad?
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