POL222H1 Lecture Notes - Lecture 7: Moving Average, Dependent And Independent Variables, Time Series
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In order to account for this effect, we need to choose value of z: we make this comparison among observations with the same values of z. Is i(cid:374)di(cid:448)idual (cid:448)oter"s per(cid:272)eptio(cid:374) of the state of national economic improves, this voter is more likely to favour the incumbent pm: hypothesis: i(cid:374)di(cid:448)idual"s per(cid:272)eptio(cid:374) of e(cid:272)o(cid:374)o(cid:373)y i(cid:374)di(cid:448)idual"s feeli(cid:374)g a(cid:271)out incumbent pm. Individuals: better 52, same 39, worse 35: economic voting=3-4 point increase, example: economic voting with ces, college education i(cid:374)di(cid:448)idual"s per(cid:272)eptio(cid:374) of e(cid:272)o(cid:374)o(cid:373)y i(cid:374)di(cid:448)idual"s feeling about incumbent pm, the question is about the state of the national economy. I(cid:374) o(cid:271)ser(cid:448)atio(cid:374)al it"s to di(cid:448)ide a(cid:374)d (cid:272)o(cid:373)pare: we should compare districts where incumbents run and which incumbents are not running (see lecture slides) Variables y1, x1, z1: we study the variation within a single spatial unit over time, t=2 y2, x2, z2, t=t (time period in our observation).
