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POL101 November 21 notes

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University of Toronto St. George
Political Science
Jeffrey Kopstein

POL101 Nov 21 lecture y International relation theoriesTheoryability to predict how states will behave how individual voters will behave Democratic Peace Theory A theory based on historical patterns that democracies do not fightgo to war with other democracies Why In most cases democracies are allied with one another The share liberal values Democracies are also slow in making policy therefore except under extreme circumstances they take a long time to declare war An in this time democracies figure out alternative ways to solve their differences Conflicts may exist but history as shown they do not go to war with each other However political science is not very good at predicting or creating good theories For example we did not predict the end of the cold war We try to predict how states will be have but generally not successful The reason is because politics is uncertain the way states behave is very uncertain But we continue to try and understand how states behave and why The case of Taiwan A tiny democratic island off of China but 1100 missiles on China are pointing at it 14 largest trading economy in the world Democracy since 1992 1920s30s China was involved with civil war War between communists and nationalists by 1940 it was clear communists would be successful Nationalists fled to Taiwan but at the time Taiwan had republic of China government Taiwan was considered the official government in exile of China The Chinese Communist Party in 1950s was not the legitimate government of China World views of communism during cold war made Taiwan the legitimate government as viewed by outside countries 1970s China normalized relations with the USA this is when USA and others recognized the Communist Party of China as the officiallegitimate government of China Therefore Taiwan was recognized as a province of China not a country China claims Taiwan In reality Taiwan is an independent state own economy on policies own exchange rate and currency behaves like a national economy and is democracy Own foreign policy military Taiwan is not recognized as a state legally a province of China it acts like an independent state In 1970s USA created Taiwan relations act USA will defend Taiwan against China This really upset China It is a province but USA is protecting it 1990s Taiwan had democratic transition and rise of independence movement results in 1996 missile crisis at same time as first election for Taiwan president As a warning China launched a missile but did not hit Taiwan scared them China threatening to use force to ensure Taiwan remains a province 2005 China creates anti succession law which states that if Taiwan declares independence it will attack Taiwan responds by increasing military 20092010 debates as too what tech Taiwan should buy from USA China could easily reclaim Taiwan But Taiwan such a strategic asset to USA they wont stop defending Also USA will defend them because they are democracy But we dont really know how China Taiwan or USA will act Laws are constantly being changedbroken Taiwan wasnt worried about China until 1990s China only became source of concern since it became very powerful
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