RSM423H1 Lecture Notes - Lecture 3: Cooperative Principle, Bayesian Probability, Syllogism
Document Summary
If the statements are true, which lead to conclusion being true, ip=1 (valid argument) = deduction (deductible logic) Ip<1 (induction) not true about the conclusion. Epistemic probability (ep) = probability that a statement is true. Ep (conclusion) = ip (argument ) * ep (premise1) * ep (premise2) = 1. If ip=(cid:1005) fo(cid:396) (cid:448)alid a(cid:396)gu(cid:373)e(cid:374)t, ep (cid:894)p(cid:1005)(cid:895) * ep (cid:894)p(cid:1006)(cid:895) is sou(cid:374)d a(cid:396)gu(cid:373)e(cid:374)t, the(cid:374) ep (cid:894)conclusion) =1 [ip=1, ep1=1, Ep (cid:894)(cid:272)o(cid:374)(cid:272)lusio(cid:374)(cid:895) is a fo(cid:396)(cid:373)ula i(cid:374)(cid:272)ludi(cid:374)g (cid:1007) ele(cid:373)e(cid:374)ts, it is the p(cid:396)o(cid:271) of (cid:272)o(cid:374)(cid:272)lusio(cid:374) is t(cid:396)ue; ip (cid:894)a(cid:396)gu(cid:373)e(cid:374)t(cid:895) refers to if first two statements are true, what is the prob that conclusion is true. Definition of confidence level (cl) = 1 risk of rejecting null h when it is true. A/r = 10m, inv = 20m, materiality = 1m n=r/p(=1/10)=3/0. 1=30 n=r/p(=1/20)=3/0. 05=60 n=r/p(=1/30)=3/(1/30)=90. Majo(cid:396) p(cid:396)e(cid:373)ise: if x is a (cid:396)a(cid:374)do(cid:373) sa(cid:373)ple of size (cid:374), the(cid:374) the(cid:396)e is a (cid:1013)(cid:1009)% (cid:272)l that x is (cid:396)ep(cid:396)ese(cid:374)tati(cid:448)e ep=(cid:1005)
