Political Science 2211E Lecture Notes - Lecture 1: First-Past-The-Post Voting, Marginal Seat, Wedge Issue
15 Dec 2016
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We may have a written segment on exam, may include op-ed/essay.
1. Basics of Campaign Strategy
2. Key Components of an Election Campaign
Political Triage:
• Triage – term used by paramedics & hospitals, used to determine how to allocate your resources
ensuring (efficiency) the most desired outcome.
o Major injuries: chest wound
o Minor injuries: secondary
o Lost causes, those whom no time is worth spending on.
Divide voters into 3 categories:
1. Your base voters
2. Oppoets ase otes
3. Swing voters
a. Genuinely undecided, swing back and forth between parties.
Triage: Allocation of resources in most efficient manner.
• Indicated which category of voters to focus on.
• Igoe oppoets ase otes
• Less focus on your own base voters
• Most focus on swing voters
Campaign Strategy:
• Proportional Representation: Seats i parliaet alloated ased o popular ote…
o 6% of vote = 6% of seats in parliament
o Majority government – over 50% of the seats in parliament.
• First Past The Post: Most votes per riding wins the seat (Currently in plae, …Lierals tryig to
amend) Do not vote for leader, instead the country is divided into 338 constituencies, vote
takes plae…
Political Triage In: First Past the Post
• 2 step process:
1. Identify base and swing ridings rather than base and swing voters
a. Suburban areas are usually swing ridings
▪ In the US presidential election, FPTP is on state by state basis, thus identify
swing or battleground states.
2. Identify base and swing voters in swing ridings
Arguments against FPTP: Policies designed to attract voters, if you always vote for specific parties the
espetie paties dot ae aout ou. The ko ou ote is guaateed, all fous is o sig otes.
find more resources at oneclass.com
find more resources at oneclass.com
Demographic profiling:
• Identify characteristics of voters who do or might support you
• Ie. old, white, male = conservative
• Surveys are conducted, ie. who did you vote for in last election, who in this election, age, race,
etc.
• Parties create different profiles of different groups of swing voters
o Ti Horto’s rod
o 905 voters
Political Marketing:
• Growing use of techniques from world of consumer marketing
• Growth of professional political consultants
o Sales: have a product and then sell it to all
o Marketing: customize products to groups of consumers
o Political Marketing: customize policies to groups of voters
▪ Platform of policies will be designed to market to very specific groups
Boutique Policies: deigned to appeal to immediate self interes of very specific swing voters (ie. tax cut
that I can see and will appear next year)
All parties do this – Conservative policies are against boutique policies, but they provide renovation
tax credits/volunteer firefighter etc. to target their voters.
• Single issue policies
• Appeal to self-interest
• Target specific groups of swing voters
Red Meat Policies:
• Policies further to right or left
• Appeal to party’s ase oters
• Motivate base to vote, donate, volunteer
Trump: build a wall, Mexico will pay for it
Bernie Sanders: free college education
Wedge Issue Policies:
• Emotional issues to motivate your base and split opposition
• Often social or cultural issues
• Get voters to vote based on 1 issue
o Support Israel – Jewish Voters
o Ukranians (Crimea Issue)
o Zero Tolerance For Barbaric Cultural Practices
o Same-sex marriage used to be a wedge issue on one end of the spectrum and has now
become a wedge issue on the opposite end
find more resources at oneclass.com
find more resources at oneclass.com
Branding:
• Focus on company image rather than specific products
• Emphasize values, identity & emotions rather than product features
• Identity marketing
• Brand royalty
• Companies focus increasingly on emotion as opposed to facts
• Positive association between product and self-image.
Political Branding:
• Focus on party image rather than specific policies
• Emphasize emotion rather than facts
• Lifestyle marketing
• Greater focus on party leaders
• Use of attack ads to define opponent
o Just not ready, Trudeau might be PM someday, but not today.
• Use of positive ads to define own leader
o Sweater vest to appeal to female voters (Harper)
• Focus groups(?) and makeovers
Key Components of an Election Campaign
1. Air War
2. Ground War
3. Cyber War
Air War:
• Conducted by the national level campaign
• Main purpose is to persuade swing voters and motivate base voters
Paid Advertising:
• Attak ads to defie oppoet
• Positive ads to sell leader and message
o Deogaphis otet of the essage & Geogaphis hee oue goig to pla the
ad)
o Demographic (which voter are you targeting) research to construct the
message/advertisement.
o Geographic, ads are not playing everywhere, swing constituencies: elections will be
more pronounced
• Guided by political triage and demographic profiling
• Advertise to target specific voters in swing ridings
• Miotagetig though diet ail
find more resources at oneclass.com
find more resources at oneclass.com
Document Summary
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