Psychology 2135A/B Lecture 17: Lecture 17 - Wednesday November 23rd, 2016
30 Nov 2016
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Nor(cid:373)ati(cid:448)e model: hu(cid:373)a(cid:374)s are opti(cid:373)al de(cid:272)isio(cid:374) (cid:373)akers (cid:449)ho al(cid:449)a(cid:455)s sele(cid:272)t (cid:272)hoi(cid:272)e leadi(cid:374)g to largest (cid:862)e(cid:454)pe(cid:272)ted utilit(cid:455)(cid:863) (cid:894)gai(cid:374)(cid:895: utilit(cid:455) refers to out(cid:272)o(cid:373)es that a(cid:272)hie(cid:448)e a perso(cid:374)"s goals. Dice game: costs . 00 to play, roll a 6 and win . 0, roll a 1-5 and win nothing. Ev = (1/6 x4) + (5/6 x -1) Deal or no deal game show: contestant had opened 21 briefcases (no longer in play, remaining brief cases: 300,000: bank offered ,000, c reje(cid:272)ted e(cid:374)ded up o(cid:374)l(cid:455) (cid:449)i(cid:374)i(cid:374)g (cid:1005),(cid:1004)(cid:1004)(cid:1004) Deal or no deal post et al. (2008: found that contestants take more risks when doing poorly, perhaps to avoid feeling like a loser. In reality, humans are less than optimal decision makers influenced by many factors other than utility. Fra(cid:373)i(cid:374)g: the effe(cid:272)t of ho(cid:449) i(cid:374)for(cid:373)atio(cid:374) a(cid:271)out alter(cid:374)ati(cid:448)es is prese(cid:374)ted o(cid:374) people"s (cid:272)hoi(cid:272)es: e. g. , disease problem (tyversky & kahneman, 1981) Canada is preparing for the outbreak of a dangerous disease which is expected to kill 600 people.
