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Lecture 3

Psychology of Thinking Lecture 3-Induction.docx

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Psychology 3130A/B
John Paul Minda

Psychology of Thinking Lecture 3 InductionWhat is InductionThinkingoGeneral propositions derived from specific examplesoSpecific to general kind of reasoningVickersoAll of the swans we have seen are whiteoTherefore all swans are white tempted to make this predictionoUntil you see evidence to contradict this this seems like a pretty good predictionWhy is this wrongBecause youve only seen a small subset of the categoryWhat is induction good forInferringPredictingGeneralizingSpecific to generalThe problem of inductionWhat is the problem of inductionWhat are the grounds for such inductive or causal inferencesInduction is being able to predict the future based on past eventsoHumeReasoning is founded on the relation of cause and effectoHumes negative thesisWe cant ever know that the future will resemble the past we cant make this assumption because we would have to rely on the pastYesterday I encountered a homered squash cut it open its just like every other one I have ever encountered made an assumption that the past would resemble the futureAccording to Hume you cant make the assumption that every time you make an induction it will be correctSo just because you made a correct induction yesterday doesnt mean you will be correct todayOur knowledge of causal relations is not attainable through demonstrative reasoning but is acquired through past experiencesFrom causes which appear similar we expect similar effectsDescriptiveoSuggests that there is no actual process of reflective thought that takes us from the observed to the unobservedJustificatory
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