Statistical Sciences 1024A/B Lecture 10: Chapter 10
20 Apr 2016
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We call a phenomenon random if individual outcomes are uncertain but there is nonetheless a regular distribution of outcomes in a large number of repetitions. The probability of any outcome of a random phenomenon is the proportion of times the outcome would occur in a very long series of repetitions. Long head frequencies: tossing heads with a coin. As # of tosses increases, the proportion of heads gets closer to 0. 5 and stays there. Occurs half the time in a very large number of trials . We have several ways of defining a probability, and this has consequences on its intuitive meaning. From understanding the phenomenon and symmetries in the problem. Ex: six-sided die: each side has the same chance of turning up; therefore, each has a probability 1/6. Genetic laws of inheritance based on meiosis process. From our knowledge of numerous similar past events.
