BU354 Lecture Notes - Lecture 10: Nominal Group Technique, Delphi Method, Succession Planning
Human Resources Planning
Human Resources Planning (HRP)
-The process of forecasting future human resources requirements to ensure that the
organization will have the required number of employees with the necessary skills to meet its
strategic objectives
-Effective HRP helps an organization to achieve its strategic goals and objectives, achieve
economies in hiring new workers, make major labour market demands more successfully,
anticipate and avoid shortages and surpluses of human resources, and control/reduce labour
costs
Human Resources Planning Model
Step 1: Forecast Demand for Labour
Step 2: Analyze Supply
Step 3: Implement HR Programs to Balance Supply and Demand
-Environmental Scanning is a critical component of HRP and strategic planning processes
• The most successful organizations are prepared for changes before they occur
• The external environmental factors most frequently monitored include economic
conditions, market trends, technological changes and demographic needs
Step 1: Forecasting Future Human Resources Needs (Demand)
-A key component of HRP is forecasting the number and type of people needed to meet
organizational objectives
-In addition to the basic requirements for staff, several other factors should be considered:
• Projected turnover
• Quality and nature of employees
• Decisions to upgrade the quality of products/services or enter into new markets
• Planned technological and administrative changes aimed at increasing productivity
• The financial resources available to each department
Quantitative Approaches
-Trend Analysis: the stud of a fi’s past eploet leels oe a peiod of ears to predict
future needs
• Purpose is to identify employment trends that may continue in the future
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-Ratio Analysis: a forecasting technique for determining future staff needs by using ratios
between some causal factor (such as sales volume) and the number of employees needed
-Scatter Plot: a graphical method used to help identify the relationship between two variables
-Regression Analysis: a statistical technique involving the use of a mathematical formula to
pojet futue deads ased o a estalished elatioship etee a ogaizatio’s
employment level (dependent variable) and some measurable factor of output (independent
variable)
Qualitative Approaches
-Nominal Group Technique: a decision-making technique that involves a group of experts
meeting face to face
• Steps include independent idea generation, clarification and open discussion, and
private assessment
-Delphi Technique: a judgemental forecasting method used to arrive at a group decision,
typically involving outside experts as well as organizational employees
• Ideas are exchanged without face-to-face interaction and feedback is provided and used
to fine-tune independent judgements until a consensus is reached
Managerial Judgement
-Staffing Table: a pictorial representation of all jobs within the organization, along with the
number of current incumbents and future employment requirements (monthly or yearly) for
each
Step 2: Forecasting the Availability of Internal and External Candidates (Supply)
-Short-term and long-range HR demand forecasts only provide half of the staffing equation by
aseig the uestio ho a eploees ill e eed?
-The next major concern is how projected openings will be filled. Sources of supply can be
internal (present employees who can be promoted) or external
Forecasting the Supply of Internal Candidates
-Before estimating how many external candidates will need to be recruited and hired,
management must determine how many candidates for projected openings will likely come
from within the firm
Markov Analysis
-Method of forecasting internal labour supply that involves tracking the pattern of employee
movements throughout various jobs and developing a transitional probability matrix
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