BU385 Lecture Notes - Lecture 5: Demand Forecasting, Delphi Method, Average Absolute Deviation
Document Summary
Demand forecast is an estimate of expected demand during a specified future period. Three types of uses for demand forecasting in operations: to help managers design the system, help managers plan the medium term use of the system, to schedule the short term use of the system. Executive opinions small group of upper level managers may meet and collectively develop a forecast. Sales force opinion sales staff or customer service staff is a good source of information because of their direct contact with customers. Historical analogies sometimes the demand for a similar product in the past, can be used to fo(cid:396)e(cid:272)ast a (cid:374)e(cid:449) p(cid:396)odu(cid:272)t"s de(cid:373)a(cid:374)d. Expert opinion may solicit opinion from a number of experts: delphi method experts completes a series of questions each developed from the previous one to achieve a consensus forecast. Irregular variation random big spikes, either up or down, something exceptional happening and it is not part of the market: random variations are minor fluctuations.
