BU395 Lecture Notes - Lecture 7: Time Series, Exponential Smoothing, Extended Periodic Table
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Modern shipbuilding has gone beyond that. (cid:1689) ~edward j. smith, titanic. ~thomas john watson, sr. , chairman of ibm 1943: "there"s no chance that the iphone is going to get any significant market share. It should be presented in writing: the method should be easy to use and understand in most cases, subjective (based on human judgment, sales force composites, customer surveys, the delphi method. Jury of executive opinion: objective (derived from an analysis of data, causal methods, time series methods, current practice. , xn) be n variables that have predictive power for y. A causal model is y = f (x1, x2, . , xn): a typical relationship is a linear one, y = a0 + a1x1 + . + anxn: time series methods, a time series is just a collection of past values of the variable being predicted. What is nove(cid:373)(cid:271)er (cid:1006)(cid:1004)(cid:1005)7"s fore(cid:272)asted de(cid:373)a(cid:374)d usi(cid:374)g a. A more sophisticated weighted averaging method: example:
