EC140 Lecture Notes - Lecture 19: Nairu, Output Gap, Disinflation

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Y > y* excess demand for labour. Y < y* excess supply for labour: expected inflation some workers/firms raise wages in advance of inflation how do people form their expectations, forward-looking, backward-looking, a combination of both. From wages to prices overall effect on nominal wages determines how the as curve shifts: impact on price level, the last term captures any shifts in the as curve caused by things other than wage changes. Constant inflation if inflation has been constant for several years and there is no indication of an impending change in monetary policy, expected inflation will eventually equal actual inflation: if expected inflation = actual inflation, Constant inflation with no supply shocks constant inflation with y = y* occurs when the rate of monetary growth, the rage of wage increase, and expected inflation are all consistent with the actual inflation rate.

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