PS296 Lecture 5: Three general views of probability
Three general views of probability:
1) Subjective view
2) Frequentistic view
3) Analytic view
Subjective Probability
-defines probability in terms of a person's subjective belief that a particular event will occur
-ex what is probability that the Toronto Blue Jays win the World Series this year? (depends on
how much person you ask likes them)
Frequentistic View
-defines probability in terms of past performance
-actual probabilities are used to predict the likelihood of an event based on what we know about
the past performance of the dice, or the coin, or the process etc
Ex:
-shake your box of smarties and take one out without looking
-write down the colour
-put smartie back in box
-repeat a total of 10 times
1) red
Document Summary
Three general views of probability: subjective view, frequentistic view, analytic view. Defines probability in terms of a person"s subjective belief that a particular event will occur. Ex what is probability that the toronto blue jays win the world series this year? (depends on how much person you ask likes them) Actual probabilities are used to predict the likelihood of an event based on what we know about the past performance of the dice, or the coin, or the process etc. Shake your box of smarties and take one out without looking. Repeat a total of 10 times: red, red, red, green, green, pink, purple, red, red, pink. I would think red has a higher chance of being drawn. Defines probability in terms of an analysis of the possible outcomes. Theoretical probabilities are used to predict likelihood of an event based on what we know about the nature of the dice, or the coin, or the process etc.
