NATS 1760 Lecture Notes - Lecture 6: Numeracy, Statics
3 Dec 2018
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Science has given us the ability to predict and control the world. Teach us about the way the world works. Science doesn"t tell us what will happen, but what will probably happen. We tend to overestimate (ie, rads. exposure near nuclear plants) or underestimate (smoking) Technical knowledge can also lower estimate risks. Knowing something on a topic tends to predict that something as a lower risk. We forget the misses but remember the success. This tends to screw with the perception of risk. We overestimate the intensity and duration of emotional reactions. We assume we would be very emotionally upset, but for the most part, people can adapt. Example: we typically assume we will be happier when wealthy, but in actuality, wealth makes people no happier. We underestimate that we can adapt to our emotional environment. Like when you lose a loved one, for the most part, you adapt and the pain intensity past.
