NATS 1760 Lecture Notes - Lecture 13: Pras, Metacognition, Unbridled
7 Mar 2016
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Lecture 13: readings and notes risk, uncertainty, expertise and ignorance. Agnotology: how ignorance is created and sustained (manufacture of ignorance: uncertainty, clicker q: a man has a prostate-specific antigen (psa) test and the urologist tells him he has tested positive for prostate cancer. A suspected tumor is cut out, but his procedure also causes incontinence. A biopsy is then conducted again and it turns out the tumor" wasn"t cancerous. Can be reduces with knowledge, but never eliminated or disproved. Choose least certain option (or none at all) Ii) ignorance: clicker q: gigerenzer relates a story of a president of a medical association (!) who has false positive result from a mammogram, and who is terrible anxious about them now. The conclusions he draws, and we should draw, are a suspicious result likely means there"s something wrong with the test, not the patient"s body and although we assume doctors can understand medical evidence, even the most respected ones may not.
