PSYC 1010 Lecture Notes - Lecture 22: Lie Detection
17 May 2018
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PSYC 1010 Lecture 22 Notes
Introduction
Skeptical Scrutiny
• Should we more often be subjecting our intuitive hunches to skeptical scrutiny?
• This much seems certain
• We ofte uderestiate ituitio’s perils.
• My [DM] geographical intuition tells me that Reno is east of Los Angeles, that Rome is
south of New York, that Atlanta is east of Detroit.
• But I am wrong, wrong, and wrong.
• Studies show that people greatly overestimate their lie detection accuracy, their
eyewitness recollections, their interviewee assessments, their risk predictions, and their
stock-picking talents.
• As a Nobel Prize–iig phsiist eplaied, The first priiple is that ou ust ot
fool yourself—and you are the easiest person to fool Fea, 1997.
• Ideed, osered oelist Madeleie L’Egle, The aked itellet is a etraordiaril
iaurate istruet 1973.
• Three phenomena—hindsight bias, overconfidence, and our tendency to perceive
patterns in random events—illustrate why we cannot rely solely on intuition and
common sense.
• Did We Know It All Along?
• Hidsight Bias Cosider ho eas it is to dra the ull’s ee after the arro strikes.
• After the stok arket drops, people sa it as due for a orretio.
• After the footall gae, e redit the oah if a guts pla is the gae, ad fault
the oah for the stupid pla if it does’t.
• After a war or an election, its outcome usually seems obvious.
• Although history may therefore seem like a series of inevitable events, the actual future
is seldom foreseen.
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