NSC 3311 Lecture Notes - Lecture 28: Inductive Reasoning, Deductive Reasoning, Daniel Kahneman
30 Jul 2016
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Judgements: deductive reasoning, based off of facts and assumed premises. You take established facts to reason to other facts: example, all men are mortal, justin is a man, so justin is mortal, failure. Only powerful if the premises are very firm- 100% Inductive reasoning: based on observations and evidence. Used readily in science: for both but particularly, probably correct but not definitely correct, three factors affect the strength of inductive reasoning for predicting future outcomes, representativeness of observations. Downside: when we have ppl to estimate a probability of death from certain causes, typically overestimate. Due to it being in the media a lot. Coin lip: we have a representation of what random should like, so many pick the first option. Refers to a basing judgment on how much one event resembles another. Consider if the data ( in mind) is relevant rather than salient. Seek reasons why our judgments may be wrong and consider alternatives.
