PSYCH 101 Lecture Notes - Lecture 35: Utility, Inductive Reasoning, Sample Size Determination

• School: UW
• Department: Psychology
• Course: PSYCH 101
• Professor: Pickrell

Document Summary

Psych 101: intro to psych - lecture 35 - decision making: From premises that are assumed to be true. To conclusions that are certain to be true if the premises are true. Inductive reasoning is reasoning (specific to general) To: strength of belief with respect to one or more conclusions. Inductive : arguments that try to show that the evidence supports one view or another. Rational factors that influence the strength of an inductive arguments. Representativeness of observations: a random sample of voters is more represenative than interveiws witha few close friends. The prior probability of the hypothesis (also called the base rate for the hypothesis) Why are psychologiest interested in probability judgmen. In human behavior, we don"t have algorithms, so imploy heuristics. Heuristics: shortcuts that may or may not provide correct solutions. The tendency to estimate the likelihood of an event based on how easily instances of that event come to mind.