IR 360 Lecture Notes - Lecture 7: Bashar Al-Assad, Ali Mahdi Muhammad, Croats Of Bosnia And Herzegovina
1 May 2018
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Department
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Coercive Force Case Studies in Crisis Management
POSC/IR 360
Unit Seven
Coercive Diplomacy Redux
• What to demand of an adversary
• Whether and how to create a sense of urgency in an opponent's mind to comply with a
demand
• Conveying a threat of consequences (punishment)
• Whether positive inducements are necessary as well
The Target's Options
• Develop counter-coercion techniques- can try to armor themselves or insulate themselves
from you
• Reject the ultimatum as a bluff- Bashar al Assad
• Act preemptively- target could attack first, create a buffer
• Take the ultimatum seriously but refuse to back down for constructivist reasons
• Recognition that identity politics trump the traditional paradigms
(constructivism), might be identity reasons why concessions are not accessible
• Conditional or equivocal acceptance- meaning okay we’ll do this and this but not that (do
almost everything but equivocate on one or two key elements)
• Nightmare scenario- for the striker is that the target accepts all conditions but then
doesn’t cooperate and undercuts them
Bosnia 1994-1995 (split between ethnic groups, spread out all over the place)
Ethnic Bosnians Muslims (Bosniacs)
Bosnian Croats (ethnically roman catholic)
Bosnian Serbs
Background to the Crisis
• 1991 breakup of Yugoslavia- death of leader of Yugoslavia (Tito), and after his death it
lurches along for about 6, 7 years but becomes obvious the ethnic tensions will break it
apart at the same time the rest of the world was falling apart
• communist country, but its own version of communism
• same year Soviet Union falls, last external pressure that kept them together
• Slobodan Milosevic (minor communist official) began to exhort the Serbs (dominant
population) and Serbian Nationalism
• Begins to stoke Serbian Nationalism, proclaims a greater Serbia
• Greater Serbia
• Uses military force to corale all of the left overs and calls it Greater Serbia and
open warfare erupts over all of formerly Yugoslavia and in particular Bosnia
• Ethnic cleansing, the Serbs do (particularly the Bosniacs)
The Bosnian Crisis
• A rising crescendo of destruction
• Threats, sanctions and low levels of force were ineffective
• UN authority was being flouted
find more resources at oneclass.com
find more resources at oneclass.com
• Reduction of the Safe Zones and massacre at Srebrenica
• The mortar incident in Sarajevo in June 1995
• Dayton Accords 1995
Evaluation of Coercive Force
• UNPROFOR is not effective
• Desultory NATO airpower
• IFOR is effective
• SFOR
• Serbia concedes because its options were worsening
• Would an earlier intervention of decisive force have saved the Muslims in Bosnia?
The Kosovo Crisis
• Albanian crisis 1998
• COIN campaign against KLF insurgency 1999
• Vast humanitarian consequences
• Charges of genocide against Serbia
• Lessons learned by both sides since 1995
• A crisis Serbia had to escalate
Evaluation of the Crisis
• Serbs do not believe the ultimatum
• Serbs are prepared for coercion
• West is committed to action
• Full attention of the US
• Clinton will not repeat Haiti, Rwanda or Somalia
• Third party manipulation of the crisis
Somalia 1992-1994 (big failures in force at the end)
Background to the Crisis
• Cold War puppetry
• Somali clan system
• Collapse of food distribution due to clan warfare
The Crisis
• Collapse of Siad Barre 1991-1992
• Rivalry, especially between Mohammed Aideed and Ali Mahdi Mohammed, technicals
• UNOSOM I in 1992
• UNITAF and mission creep
• UNOSOM II 1993
Evaluation of Coercive Force
• Coercive inducement does not fail in Somalia
• Moderated force coupled with skillful diplomacy worked
• Post crisis was mismanaged, and so crisis never ended
• UNOSOM I, UNITAF and UNOSOM II each fails for different reasons
find more resources at oneclass.com
find more resources at oneclass.com
• UNITAF is a success, but in isolation
Haiti 1994 -1995
Background to the Crisis
• Wretchedly poor beyond belief (extreme, extreme poverty; poorest nation per capita in
the western hemisphere)
• Frustrated democracy: Duvaliers (papa doc) to Jean-Bertrand Aristide 1991 – deposed in
9/91
• No real democracy; country has its own brutal and difficult circumstances
• When elections were forced, Jean-Bertrand Aristide elected and very
hopeful…then very soon deposed (by the hunta, and then they ran the country)
• Overtop of this, Haiti is a proud country (second country in the history of the
world to free itself of its colonial masters)
• A country which managed to get up off of its knees of slavery (how they
see themselves)
• But, dominant group of Haiti actually tends to be the whites these days
(they are not of European blood, just lighter skinned)
• Begins with shot to ship
• Three Phases (election of Aristide, deposed, govt led by the Hunta becomes so brutal and
oppressive that people start leaving the country…by crowding by hundreds into boats and
trying to flee…this is a humanitarian crisis (refugee crisis in the Bahamas), then attempt
to force the return of Aristide and throw the Hunta out)
The Crisis
• 1991-1994 and the return of the tontons-macoutes (kept the population subjugated, name
closely related to the influence of voodoo)
• come back and don’t want to use the name any more so they become called the
attaches
• Mounting refugee crises caused by utter wretched brutality of the Hunta rule which is
setting revenge for democracy pushes)
• Governors Island Agreement in 1993: USS Harlan County (navy ship with marines on it,
only way to land is to engage in violence with attaches and so they turn the ship
around…bad decision) and UN Peacekeepers vs. the attaches
• Attempt to negotiate a settlement, hosted in the Bahamas (Governors Island) and
as part of the agreement UN peacekeepers were landed and take over policing
• as they are approaching, there is a demonstration on the docks by the
attaches (these people are thugs, not tough, beat on people who are very
weak)
• Another Somalia Effect- Americans don’t have the ability to see it through (glass jaw),
give a threat of casualties or small number of casualties and they will run away
• Trying to prevent a hostile invasion (from Haitian point of view)- these are the white
people coming to take over the country again (the real white people); coming once again
with an invasion force on our shore…so this was just too much to swallow for them
• Eventually the USS Harlan County does return, after the US threatens full on deployment
(actual military engagement)…forced to act (humiliated into action)…this is the actual
acute crisis
find more resources at oneclass.com
find more resources at oneclass.com
Document Summary
Bosnia 1994-1995 (split between ethnic groups, spread out all over the place) The bosnian crisis: reduction of the safe zones and massacre at srebrenica, the mortar incident in sarajevo in june 1995, dayton accords 1995. The kosovo crisis: albanian crisis 1998, coin campaign against klf insurgency 1999, vast humanitarian consequences, charges of genocide against serbia, lessons learned by both sides since 1995, a crisis serbia had to escalate. Somalia 1992-1994 (big failures in force at the end) Background to the crisis: cold war puppetry, somali clan system, collapse of food distribution due to clan warfare. The crisis: collapse of siad barre 1991-1992, rivalry, especially between mohammed aideed and ali mahdi mohammed, technicals, unosom i in 1992, unitaf and mission creep, unosom ii 1993. Background to the crisis: wretchedly poor beyond belief (extreme, extreme poverty; poorest nation per capita in the western hemisphere, frustrated democracy: duvaliers (papa doc) to jean-bertrand aristide 1991 deposed in.
