IAFF 1005 Lecture 11: Thursday: Lecture #11
13 Jun 2018
School
Department
Course
Professor
Thursday Lecture: The US Grand Strategy
I. How is the US doing?
II.
A. Population: going to grow about 25% over the next 30 years which is manageable → better
than being in decline like Russia and Japan
1. Immigration makes the strong demographics
B. Economy: technology is strong, becoming more energy independent because of fracking
1. Slow-ish growth (2-3) → long-term growth rate is probably around here
2. Fiscal challenges: costs of healthcare, retirement programs → older people aren’t
contributing to the economy
3. More investment in infrastructure, education, R&D, renewables, IT/AI
C. Military: power projection capabilities above any other country
D. Governance
1. The rise of resentment and ethno-nationalism
2. Policy gridlock, lack of strategic thinking
3. Leadership matters
III.
A. Internationalists favor leaning in
B. Since the 1990s there have been many who think we should hold back now that the SU is gone
C. Should the US be involved in keeping an international order? Is it in our national interest?
IV. Prospects for the US
find more resources at oneclass.com
find more resources at oneclass.com
Document Summary
Ii: population: going to grow about 25% over the next 30 years which is manageable better than being in decline like russia and japan. Investment: leadership, trump strategy document is more realist, disconnect between the state strategy and trump"s own foreign policy, allies are invaluable the tpp would have increased economic relations with allies. Vi: opposed to multilateralism, doesn"t appreciate enduring alliances, embraces unpredictability problematic because allies want predictability, crisis management. Vii: confidence that the us president will do the right thing in world affairs dropped from around 69- Why this matters: international order and disorder is important for everyone, prospects for the us as a great power is vital to the equation. Ix: the thucydides trap, danger zone is when the power of the rising and established powers crossover. Stabilizing factors in us-china relations: geographic distance: have their own spheres of influence, nuclear deterrence: don"t have to worry about the other conquering their territory, economic interdependence: connects leadership stability.
