01:830:305 Lecture Notes - Lecture 16: Modus Tollens, Modus Ponens, Conjunction Fallacy
Document Summary
Some premises imply other premises but they don"t determine each other. Multiple hypotheses - if there"s only one hypothesis, there is no question. Have elements on the right, need element on the left. Likelihood (particular probability, fit to the evidence) = p(d|h) Modus ponens - if you know a, you know a implies b, then you know b. Modus tollens - if you know a isn"t true, you know a implies b, if b is not true, then a is probably not true. If you know a and you know the probability of b given a is high, then you can conclude b is probably true based on a being true. Ie if you know it thunders during a rainstorm, and it is thundering, it is also probably raining. Rational induction - drawing inferences from experience. Bayesian inference is normative - objectively correct way of doing something.
