PSC 321 Lecture Notes - Lecture 15: Geopolitics
18 May 2018
School
Department
Course
Professor
This week
● What explains the role of the military in the uprisings?
Role of the military: 2 phases
● At the time of the uprising
○ Whether or not to support the authoritarian leaders
● After ouster of authoritarian leader
○ Role in governance?
Relevant Factors (Barany)
● Legitimacy of the regime in the eyes of the military
● Composition of the military
● Status of the military under authoritarian rule (economic privileges, etc.)
During Uprising: Three Possible Outcomes (Barany)
● Refuse to follow incumbent’s orders
○ Egypt and Tunisia
● Split / Divided loyalties
○ Libya and Yemen
● Support incumbent
○ Bahrain and Syria
Refuse to Support Incumbent
● Tunisia
○ Small, professional army
○ Police buttressed at the expense of the military
○ No stake in the survival of the regime
● Egypt
○ More complicated than Tunisia
○ Did not move to oust Mubarak right away
○ Military enjoyed substantial economic privileges
○ Yet: concerns about Mubarak; conscript army
After the Uprising: Possible Outcomes
● Return to barracks
○ Hand over power to civilians
■ E.g. Tunisia
● Play a role in governance
○ Oversee transition
○ Run a candidate with military background in presidential elections
■ E.g. Egypt
Splits / Divided Loyalties
● Yemen and Libya
○ Key military posts on the basis of personal ties and tribal affiliations
○ Multiple forces, including paramilitary organizations
Support the Incumbent
● Bahrain
○ Modest size military
