MSC 220 Lecture Notes - Lecture 19: Climate Change Scenario

• School: University of Miami
• Department: Marine Science
• Course: MSC 220
• Professor: Igor Kamenkovich

Document Summary

Simulation that extends into the future based on a scenario of future external forcing: climate prediction. Is the model based statement about the future and includes a forced response and internally generated variability: near-term. Predictions for period of a few decades. Less sensitive to differences between future emissions. Important to decisions in government and industry scenarios: long-term. Predictions for a period of several decades to centuries. Changes are a response of climate to forcing. Climate models prediction, and comparing to the truth: climate predictions do not attempt to capture daily changes. Climate prediction: predictions for averages of temperature, over large regions of the planet and for the global mean, exhibit positive skill when verified against observations for forecast periods up to ten years. Can verify predictive skill by starting in the past, making a. How models work: in/out: radiative heating and cooling, through: heat exchanges with atmosphere, in: heat exchanges with ocean, inside: internal factors.