EVSC 1450 Lecture Notes - Lecture 13: Representative Concentration Pathways, Carbon Cycle
31 Aug 2016
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A family of scenarios/projections that should bracket p, a and t. 1 = smaller gap between rich and poor. 2 = maintain large gap between rich and poor. Scenarios tell us how much is emitted, not how much is in the atmosphere. Use a carbon cycle model to determine how much stays in the atmosphere (get n a) Use climate model to determine temperature plus the rest of climate. 1. 8-3. 5 * c higher than 1990, which is 0. 7* c higher than pre industrial. Range comes because we"re not sure what we"re going to do. Future, we either double or triple it. Assume emissions rise by 2% per year until peaking at 550, 850, or 1200 ppm; then zero. Co2 remains elevated, so temperature elevated beyond a thousand years. Some say -- we can barely predict weather in 5 days, how can you tell me what will happen in a thousand years? . Weather = exact state of the atmosphere.
