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Lecture 8

HTM 4454 Lecture Notes - Lecture 8: Martin Luther King Jr. Day

Hospitality and Tourism Management
Course Code
HTM 4454

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HTM 4454: Revenue Management
LO7: Forecasting
Section II: Processes and Calculations
1. Factors affecting Forecasting
a. External Factors
a.i. Macro-economic level changes
a.ii. Industry shifts
a.iii. Special Events
a.iv. Changes in competition
b. Internal Factors
b.i. Strategy Changes
b.ii. Marketing/ Sales Actions
b.iii. Product Changes
2. Key Forecasting Information
a. Market conditions
b. Current and historical patterns of different market segments
c. Individual Market Segments
d. Group Market Segments
d.i. Blocked Rooms account for high end of expected occupancy
d.ii. Expected “wash” is critical to forecast
d.ii.1. Wash = Expected Occupied Rooms – Actual
Occupied Rooms
3. Types of Forecasts
a. Constrained – considers demand until limit of hotel’s capacity
b. Unconstrained – estimated market capacity regardless of a hotel’s
actual capacity
4. Common mistakes of forecasting
a. Comparing dates to dates without taking into consideration the day of
the week
a.i. DAY not date
a.i.1. It isn’t comparing the 1/14/15 to 1/14/16 but
comparing that DAY in 2015 to that same DAY in 2016
a.i.1.a. This helps to account for changes in
seasonality, etc.
a.i.2. Ex. MLK Day
b. Relying only on trends and patterns of the business without regard to
current events
b.i. Missed opportunities for driving rates
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