PSYC10H3 Lecture Notes - Mutual Fund, Randomness, Graduate School
Document Summary
Our class exercises do not generate enough consecutive h or t, so it"s too fake. Our intuition of randomness doesn"t really match the actual randomness. If 524 is the number that made someone won the lottery, it will have a lower chance to get picked again in another round, but each time we pick a number, it is independent. If we see a streak of x, we have an illusion that y will come next. Mutual fund performance: not luck due to high return rates. If the performance is low, then it is chance-driven. Maximizing opportunities by doing it many jobs. (send out a shit ton resume rather than sending only 1 or 2) Correlate multiple measures to see if you are in a high chance. Because the smaller the sample, such as 15 babies, it takes 81 days to get to 60% of them being boys.
