Statistical Sciences 1023A/B Chapter Notes - Chapter 16: Fallacy
20 Apr 2017
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Personal probabilities are values assigned by individuals based on how likely they think events are to occur. No single correct value but should still follow the rules. People are willing to pay more to increase their probability of a favourable outcome = certainty effect. Possibility effect = impact of increasing a favorable outcome from 0 to a small probability. More people are willing to pay a fixed amount to bring the risk down to zero. Rather than being offered a reduced risk on a variety of problems, you are offered a complete reduction of risk on certain problems and no reduction on others. Substitutes one question for another: you wish to estimate the size of a category or frequency of an event, but instead you report an impression of the ease with which instances come to mind. The more you know of something or the more it happens, the more likely it is to be on your mind.
