ADMS 3701 Lecture Notes - Official World Golf Ranking, Risk Perception, Return Period

• School: York University
• Department: Administrative Studies
• Course: ADMS 3701
• Professor: Uma Acharya

Document Summary

Lecture plan: extreme event analysis, risk perceptions and communication. Smith et. al. , hazards" book, chapter 4- risk assessment and management". The book is available as ebook online through the scott library at the following link : http://www. library. yorku. ca/find/record/2464122. Extreme event analysis concerned with the distribution of annual maximum or minimum values at a given site- to forecast recurrence and probability of annual frequency. Example: annual maximum wind gusts recorded at tiree in western scotland over a 59-year period from 1927 to 1985. These events can be given a rank, m, starting with m = 1 for the highest recorded wind gust, m = 2 for the next highest and so on in descending order. The return period or recurrence interval tr (in years) can then be computed from. Tr (years) = (n +1)/ m: where m = event ranking and n = number of events in the period of record.