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Political Science
POLI 227
Stephen Saideman

Alyssa Tuman Poli 227 Final Exam Study Guide Approaches to Development Why are LDCs underdeveloped? How can this be fixed? note: both theories underestimate value of religion in development Modernization Theory (or Development Approach) developing nations must acquire modern cultural values and create modern political and economic institutions; emphasizes historical process of interrelated social changes Basic Beliefs: - transforming culture is the most crucial step in developing. - judge people with universalistic standards - believe in possibility and desirability of change - value science and technology - think about things outside of immediate sphere/village/family etc - believe every day people can influence politics - transition to democracy can be achieved through: - educational changes - teach modern values - urbanization - will ensure kids attend schools - spread of mass media, communication - spread of modern culture - diffusion of modern ideas from developed nations - need to create more specialized and complex political and economic institutions to support this cultural change - trained bureaucracies - political parties - cultural/institutional changes will lay foundation for more stable, effective, and responsive political system - believe religion impedes development Basic Problems: - too simplistic and optimistic in initial view of change - ethnocentrism - the intensification of ethnic, racial, cultural hostilities has undercut the modernization theory - In Africa and Asia, early modernization has frequently politicized and intensified ethnic antagonisms - culturally biased - hurts women in the short term because industrialization, urbanization, and spread of world capitalism widened the gender gap - social/economic modernization can cause political instability and violence - sometimes wrong - Brazil, Mexico, Taiwan, Singapore have all had economic success begin under authoritarian governments The Theory Reworked: - The Conflict Theory - Political instability is a necessary evil for long run economic growth - Early stages of economic growth require wealth to be concentrated in a small number of hands so that incipient capitalists could acquire sufficient capital for major investments - The Reconciliation Approach - with the right policies, developing nations can simultaneously achieve goals previously thought to be incompatible - examples: Both Barbados and Costa Rica achieved democracy and stability at simultaneously Samuel Huntington - Reworked the theory because noticed political instability after decolonization - Modernization leads to social mobilization (which makes new demands on the state, building codes, transportation, hospitals etc) - If demands are placed upon the state faster than the state capabilities (i.e. political institutions) are growing, then it overwhelms them and will lead to political decay (riots, civil wars, etc) Dependency Theory (or Underdevelopment Approach) LDCs are politically and economically subordinate to the West; they’re stuck there. Basic Beliefs: - Colonialism and economic imperialism turned LDCs into providers of cheap food and raw materials for the developed world. - Believe only socialist countries can achieve economic independence and development - Developing nations cannot follow same path as the west did because the west changed the path, made it impossible. - Economic dependence has led to political dependence - Leads to center periphery(metropolis satellite) relationship within third world societies - comprador elite with transnational ties to MNCs have political and economic power despite the large mass of urban and rural poor - This relationship is maintained through: - the dependence of third world countries on raw material exports -  terms of trade, unequal exchange -  the first world's control of advanced technology -  the operation of first world multinational corporations -  international debt Basic Problems: - Critics believe LDCs cannot change without West’s help because ruled by unrepresentative elites and doomed to continue backwardness - Many dependentistas believe radical revolution The Theory Reworked: - Associated-Dependent Development - through active state intervention and linkage of domestic firms to MNCs, some LDCs industrialized and experienced considerable economic growth - Problems: - MNCs make critical decisions outside of LDC control - foreign invest capital intensive investment, not labour intensive - widened income gap Three Paths to Modernization Based on work of Barrington Moore Jr., paths shaped around social classes Path 1: Strong State - Strong state allied with powerful/antidemocratic land owners and a bourgeoise dependent on the state - ex/ 19 c early 20 c Germany - Result: - leads to rise of fascist/far right regimes Path 2: Highly Centralized State - paired with repressive landowning class, weak bourgeoise, large and eventually rebellious peasantry - ex/ China - Result: - Communist revolution by the peasants Path 3: Weaker State - paired with strong bourgeoise at odds with the rural landowning elite - ex/ Britain - Result: - Liberal Democracy Role of Religion in Development General Role: Religion generally impedes development. Although democracy can exist under not secular policies, a degree of mutual tolerance is necessary. It can be good because it may legitimize state authority, a necessary step for state building. Recently, many LDCs have intensified the role of religion in politics (Islamic fundamentalism has lead to Sunni Shi’as violence in Iran, Iraq, led to 9/11). The Government Must Be Secular to Develop Sustainably Some religious influences contract norms of modernity. Maintaining pluralist values and tolerance underlying democracy requires limiting the influence of religion in politics. The Empirical Reasons Why It’s True: Based on Past Experiences - as western countries modernized they became more secular The Normative Reasons Why It’s True - it increases religious freedom - reduced likelihood of state persecution of religious minorities - permits state to make rational decisions free or religious bias Basic Problems with Secularization: - modernization precipitated backlash when pursued too rapidly - Examples: - In Iran, when the Shah imposed rapid westernization (ex/ unveiling women) it destabilized society and led to a radical Islamic revival. Now, under the governing of Islamic mullahs (clerics), Iran has become an international outcast because of its repression of civil liberties, persecution of religious minorities, support for international terrorism, its nuclear enrichment program, and apparently rigged presidential election Religion’s Role in Government It’s role in politics depends on the theological views regarding the relationship between temporal and spiritual matters and the degree to which its clergy are hierarchically organized and centrally controlled. Islam - well defined hierarchy - Sunnis and Shi’as - Shi’ites have more hierarchical clergy - major faith in Iran, Iraq, Bahrain - Sunnis have more political/economic power (they’re the majority, make up 85-90% of Muslims worldwide) - Secular - Islamic - base governing policies on Koran and Islamic Law - Muslim - intermediate position between Secular and Islamic Catholicism - well defined hierarchy - church doctrine generally supports established political regimes and helps legitimize it Donald Smith- distinguished two types of religio-political systems: organic and the church organic - weak or nonexistent religious hierarchy - insufficiently organized to influence/challenge political leaders although still have political influence, ex/ Buddhism & Hinduism church - well organized ecclesiastical structure with leader(s) at top who exercise considerable political influence ex/ Catholic Church& Shi'a clergy Islam religio-political movement in which religious is integral to state and society (particularly in Shi'a communities) -Islamic faith legitimized state but also recognized supremacy of Islamic law & Shariah (path of God) -separation of church and state non existent in most muslim countries because Islamic law decrees live in accordance with Koran -tolerant of other faiths because drew from Catholic and Jew John Esposito notes 3 types of Islamic states: Secular - ex/ Turkey - Kemal Ataturk ousted sultan in 1920s, emancipated women, closed down Muslim seminaries, established separation of church/state, however religion still taught in school because establish state control over Muslim religious instruction/Islamic institutions, guarantees freedom of belief Islamic - base governing philosophies on the Koran and Islamic Law ex/ Afghanistan, Iran, Saudi Arabi - not always anti west (Saudi isn't) but Libya, Iran, Sudan all pursued militantly anti western foreign policies and supported international terrorism Muslim - ex/ Egypt & Morocco - occupy intermediate position - identify Islam as official religion and require Muslim head of state, but impact of religion on politics is much more limited than in Islamic states ex/ not all of Egypt's political leaders are clerics Catholicism -well defined hierarchical ecclesiastical structure enables large political impact -Papal reforms carry tremendous influence ex/ Pope Leo XIII's 1891 Rerum Novarum (included indictment of early capitalism's exploitation of working class) caused Catholic reform movements in latin america ex/ Pope John Paul 2 strong against communism -over the years most latin america nations have ceased or rendered importance of Catholicism as official state religion -church doctrine generally support established political regime and help legitimize it -clashes entre government & catholics, particularly when state challenges papal stance regarding education and human rights Hinduism & Buddhism -less directly involved in politics than catholics or islam b/c very diverse/no centralized hierarchal structure, places less emphasis on temporal matters like politics -exceptions, India's BJP led by Hindu fundamentalists recently governed that country, Hindu social values i.e. caste system India and Nepalese politics effected (Nepal's king considered incarnation of hindu god Vishnu) -Buddhism grew out of hinduism in the sixth century after teachings from Nepalese prince, the Buddha (Enlightened one) ---rejects caste system, has egalitarian outlook, more organized ecclesiastical organization ie the monastic orders (sangha) - in some countries sangha has leader which provides hierarchical order Religious Fundamentalism and Islamism Islamic Fundamentalism ex/ 9/11 incorrect association fundamentalism with current militant revivals - falsely implies existence of unified threat to the West - instead use terms like revivalism (desire to return to true faith) militancy, islamist movements, instead of fundamentalism islamism - Islamic fundamentalism many people unaware of long tradition of liberal theology within Islam, stresses religious tolerance, progress for women, democratic values Most muslims are not fundamentalists, and not all fundamentalists are repressive at home or violent abroad Graham Fuller argues that although Islamism may facilitate terrorist ideology, Al Qaeda and other violent fundamentalist groups are primarily motivated by nationalist opposition to western intervention in the region (from Israel to Afghanistan and Iraq) not by religion Defining and Explaining Fundamentalism Fundamentalism - the effort to define the fundamentals of a religious stem and adhere to them. One of the cardinal tenets of Islamic fundamentalism is to protect the purity of Islamic precepts from the adulteration of speculative exercises..Behind all this is a drive to purify Islam in order to release all its vital force -want to revive the role of religion in private/public life, including politics, lifestyle, and dress -many believe the most powerful force behind radical islamic fundamentalism has been nationalism and resentment toward western backed dictatorships Radical Fundamentalists - nationalistic or chauvinistic, rejecting outside influences that challenge/pollute their culture Fundamentalists: Radical and Conservative Radical - inspired by "sacred rage" construct holy war against enemies that threaten to corrupt their fundamental religious values first arose when west went into muslim world 19/20 C, now b/c American invasion Iraq/Afghanistan mujahideen- Islamist "holy warriors" in Afghanistan, waged first jihad in 1980s against Marxist government & USSR troops supporting it 1992-2011 - Armed Islamic Group (GIA), Algerian military, government supported civilian militia massacred more than 100,000 algerians Fucked up shit by the Taliban -women couldn't attend school, work outside the home -Ministry for the Prevention of Vice and Promotion of Virtue banned TV. sport events, dancing, secular music -widows did not receive legal support, but could't work, and still had kids The Iranian Revolution: Radical Islamism as a Reaction to Western-Style Modernization Iranian Revolution began early 20th century w/ Muslim clergy resistance to government program of secular modernization imposed by royal family state turned into virtual protectorate after foreign governmental/economic/political intervention (Czarist Russia, Britain, US), made Shahs (emperors) pawns of the west Shah Reza Pahlvai (1925-1941) imperial government antagonized Shi'a mullahs (clergy) by modernization reforms including unveil women, mandatory western dress, transferring control of various political, economic, educational resources from clergy to state -Shah's son ruled 1941-1979 as close US ally -->his white revolution expanded women's rights extended general literacy and promoted land reform program that includes transfer of land from islamic institutions to peasants 1960s/1970s --->land redistributed to some 3 mil peasants, educational levels increased, oil wealth doubled size of middle class --->highest GNP per capita by 1976 --->increased rich/poor gap, corruption in government alienated the population, suspected government opponents brutally suppressed by police called Savak -many people saw Shah as American pawn because of close ties, particularly to CIA Shah's leading critic era Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeni -->briefly imprisoned 1964, which caused several riots and massacre of up to 10,000 demonstrators, exiled for 15 years, turned him into a martyr in Shi'a culture -Shah went into exile n Jan 1979 after urban population strikes and demonstrators against the regime 3 important developments set tone for Islamic Revolution: I. merger of country's religious/political leadership -->Islamic republic = government of God, ultimate power is in hands of Supreme Leader - cleric to whom the president etc are beholden - and Guardian Council (body dominated by Islamist clerics) who most approve prospective political candidates, has power to overrule parliament II. Revival of traditional Islamic Observances -->women veiled in public, particular stress on wearing chador (garment that renders body shapeless), revolutionary guards penetrate all aspects of iranian life ensuring "correct" islamic behavior, privilege to die for faith (ex/ holy war with Iraq in 1980s) III. Embraced aggressive foreign policy that supported kindred Islamist groups abroad ex/ Hezbollah and has been highly antagonistic toward countries perceived as enemies ex/ USA November 4, 1979 -->revolutionary students seized US embassy in Tehran, taking everyone hostage - obvious breach of international law, not released until 444 days later last of 52 hostages released That embassy seizure, paired with support of middle eastern terrorist groups, and its nuclear program, has made Iran an international pariah 1980 - Saddam Hussein -sent troops into Iran after border dispute, but probably motivated by iranian support for Iraq's repressed Shi'a majority -Iraq viewed clash as historical defense of arab sovereignty, against marauding persians, while Iran depicted it as a holy war against the infidels -Iranian influenced increased in Iraq after the overthrow of Hussein's regime in 2003 by USA because it gave Shi'a political majority - many of the repressed Shi'a had found refuge in Iran during Hussein's regime Islamic Revolution moderated after Khomeini's death 1989 -revolutionary guard relaxed grip on daily life -fewer women wore chador -students openly violated muslim orthodoxy -people danced to western music in secrecy of own home Mohammad Khatami, twice elected president 1997-2005, moderated country's confrontational foreign policy and tried to introduce democratic reforms but blocked Guardian Council 2005 Election conservative president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad took power harder line at home & foreign policy, clashed with west over nuclear program rolled back many personal freedoms gained under Khatami 2009 election, thousands of protestors took to the streets to protest the Ahmadinejad's questionable victory, demanded more restrained version of islamist revolution, not demise of said revolution Al Qaeda & Militant Islamism below is the origin of the terrorist network, relationship to islamic religious beliefs, and its level of support within the Muslim World Defeating Soviet Infidels in Afghanistan 1979-1989 Al Qaeda established links with Iran after Iranian revolution, but because Iran era Shi'a and Al Qaeda Sunni nothing too strong Iranians have generally opposed Afghanistan Taliban for same reason -most powerful influence on bin Laden etc was USSR occupation of Afghanistan Bin Laden -->used wealth, international contacts, magnetic personality to recruit shitton foreign volunteers -->received aide from US because they were fighting USSR 1984 - Bin Laden Establishes Afghan Service Bureau (MAK) - foundation of Al Qaeda Al Qaeda objectives: defending Islamic nations against conquest by infidels, toppling religiously derelict islamic regimes (ex/ Indonesia & Egypt), support struggles of Muslims against non-islamic governments in regions such as Chechnya (Russia0 and Indian-controlled Kashmir Fighting the USA convinced they could beat USA after beat USSR factors that triggered desire to crush USA --American support for Israel --blamed US for propping up corrupt and despot regimes in Muslim nations like Egypt --Despised west's secular values and perceived decadence bin Laden lost Saudi citizenship after Saudis rejected his offer to help protect kingdom and its muslim holy sites from Hussein's armed forces Horrible Things Al Qaeda's Responsible for 1. 1993 world trade center truck bombing 2. 1996 attack on American military barracks in Saudi 3. 1998 simultaneous bombing of US Embassies in Tanzania and Kenya (258 died, 5,000 wounded) 4. 2000 attack on US ship USS Cole in port of Aden 5. 2001 9/11 (3,000 dead) 6. 2002 Bloody bombing of Bali nightclub 7. 2004 Bombings of commuter trains in Madrid (200 dead) 8. 2005 Subway/Bus bombings in London majority share of suicide bombings in Iraq -experts believe Al Qaeda is not solely run by bin Ladin or al-Zawahiri, instead view as loosely linked network of organizations, terrorist entrepreneurs who come to Al Qaeda for financial or logistical support -functions like a venture capital firm, providing contracts, funding, and expert advice to different militant groups and individuals from a ll over the islamic world Support for Bin Laden considerable support from Islamic world, ⅔ of Pakistanis ½ of Jordan and Morocco view him favorably (2004) most don't believe Al Qaeda's behind 9/11 attacks - conspiracy theorists blame US/ Israel Why are killings of innocents ok even though its not compatible with Islamic beliefs? What means are acceptable to achieve legitimate jihadist goals? Holy war against the zionist-rusader alliance and their collaborators (Israel, Jews, Christians, Muslim States like Saudi, Egypt, Morocco, Jordan who have ties to the US) Crusaders- refer to westerners, meant to evoke historical islamic resentment of christian crusaders & opposition to US troops in Saudi the goal of the attacks on west are consistent with islamic law because protecting muslim world against threat of US and Israeli imperialism because jihad is one of the fundamental duties of a muslim failed to adhere to islamic principles in the way that they achieve their goals i.e. killings of innocents i.e. women, children, elderly men justified these killings by saying west did the same to the muslim world suicide bombings violate koran's prohibition of suicide, although the koran sanctions martyrdom but only as a last resort, one reason why people believe Al qaeda isn't truly a religious group, only wants political power/influence --->ex/ Al Qaeda ally, Afghan Taliban, prohibited domestic consumption of opium in accordance with koran teaching but made bank off it selling it to west (Afghanistan provides 90% world opium) - earns Taliban $300 million annually Islamist Terrorists in Western Europe: A New Frontier terrorist attacks carried out by muslim immigrants or their children --->swelled from increase in immigration from Arab World/Turkey 1940s to 90s, family reunifications, higher birth rates (now declining) west europe muslim population 17 million France = 6 mil ⅔ of all western european muslims live in France, UK, Germany -some were political activists who faced persecution in homeland and were granted political asylum in west europe ex/ Egypt & Morocco where Islamists were leading challengers to authoritarian governments ----->ex/ radical clerics, who then establish new mosques in western europe many arrive as university students and become radical after stung/alienated by western culture External Events also contributed to rise in radicalization young muslim immigrants radicalized 1980s by Afghan resistance against USSR occupation 1990s hated west slow response to attacks by the serbs and croats (both christians) on the bosnia muslim population Algerian war entre armed jihads sent shitton of refugees to France & other west europe nations exploited europes civil liberties and open politics to organize/expand their movements Turkey and Moderate Islamism note: Not all Islamist political movements and parties are all ultra-traditionalist, anti- modernization or anti Western ex/ Turkey: 1923, leader Mustafa Kemal Ataurk abolished state/church linkage and introduced secular reforms including women emancipation, westernized alphabet, clothing, nation's legal code, illegal for women to wear veils in public high schools, universities, or government buildings. 1950s-1980s state relaxed control over religiously based political groups -resulting in the formation of the first Islamist political party 1970 turkey economic modernization led to urbanization - the migrants have become backbone of fundamentalist resurgence that challenges Turkey's secular position and much of the nation's urban, middle class Islamist groups formed in the last decades of the 20th century but we're banned under courts or military, but always reorganize under a new name The National Order Party became National Salvation Party became the Welfare Party became the Virtue party became the Justice and Development Party (known as AK) 1996 - Welfare Party headed coalition government but was ousted by military in less than 18 months AK led by Recep Tayyip Erdogan - won 2002 elections - not all supporters are religious, instead support because its honest/efficient government --->increased economic growth, widened civil liberties, supported close ties to US and Europe, and eventually joined EU --->joining EU meant prohibit military coups and judicial prohibitions on legitimate political parties --->maintained ties to Israel --->used city funds to help renovate christian churches and jewish synagogues as well as mosques - respects other faiths AK Woes -hasn't earned trust of turkey's secular establishment i.e. government bureaucrats, professionals, and military b/c ils fear what they may do in the future if they gain sufficient power -have disrupted secular tradition by distributing religious literature in public schools and allowing religious study groups to meet in public schools -human rights violations -->repression of Kurds -->arrested journalists for "anti turkey" writings -->but less violations than predecessors - Amnesty International noted Erdogan's effort to introduce further legal and other reforms with the aim of bringing turkish law into line with international standards" Symbolic Issues ex/ headscarves, ½ of turkish women wear them but turkish law prohibits teachers, professors, students from wearing them in the classroom - this has been condemned by human rights watch -Erdogan's own wife couldn't go to state dinners because she wasn't allowed to wear a headscarf Tensions Come to Head entre Secular and Fundamentalist Turks 2007 President Sezer's term ended, Prime Minister Erdogan asked Parliament to select Abdullah Gul as president --->parliament feared handing presidency over to AK because of the power they already yielded, but AK wound up winning, but now tensions entre the courts and AK The Strengthening of Moderate Islam ex/ Singapore textbooks reflect positive viewpoint of United Nations and globalization The Progressive Catholic Church progressive path in Latin America -from colonization to now, Church has supported political and economic status quo & legitimized LA elite dominated governments - Church was major landowner until the late 19th century - allied itself with conservative political parties and factions Church Changes after WW2 abandon parts of conservatism Pope John XXIII 1960s moved Church in more liberal direction - emphasized social concerns (democracy, human rights, social justice) 2nd Vatican Council convened entre 1962-1965 1968 Latin America Bishops Conference (CELAM) met in Colombia to apply Vatican 2 to own regions - challenged status quo - gave preference to poor/needy - the Church of the Poor, not the elite Church influence in Latin America 1970s 80s Nuns & priest supported Sandinista revolution 1970s - no other government in LA has had the number of priests in its cabinet as Nicaragua's leftist Sandinista government -the rest of latin america at this time came under right wing authoritarian dictatorship ex/ Argentina, Brazil, Chile --->reaction to perceived radical threat right wing repression spurred the growth of the progressive church more effectively than the cuban or nicaraguan revolution had dozens of priests/nuns murdered/persecuted in countries such as Brazil, El Salvador, Guatemala because outspoken criticism of military regimes --->such repression radicalized many moderate catholics Church Critic of Government Human Rights Violations in Chile Brazil El Salvador Peru Archbishop Oscar Romero of El Salvador appalled by military's human rights abuses wrote to President Carter 1980 asking him to terminate US military aid to ruling junta until human rights violations ended - also broadcasted sermon asking Salvadorian soldiers to disobey orders to kill innocent civilians - assassinated the next day at mass by a death squad linked to the military In Latin America, progressive clergy are much more common than radicals on occasion their political rhetoric and analysis has found some common ground with the Left ex/ plight of poor is recognized by both church and marxists recognize US dependency as root of underdevelopment catholic reject revolutionary violence and the leninists state as solutions - stress reform not revolution Gustavo Gutiérrez father of liberation theology peruvian priest liberation theology calls on catholic laity and clergy to become politically active and to direct that activity toward the emancipation of the poor - draws on Marxist analysis accept notion of class struggle but form of struggle non violent --->poor should organize self into Christian (Ecclesial) Base Communities (CEBs) where they can raise political and social awareness to recognize need to transform society through their own mobilization --->CEBs spread through Latin America, particularly Brazil, Chile, Peru, Central America --->CEB = any group that meets on a regular basis to deepen its members' knowledge of the gospel, stimulate reflection and action on community needs…and evangelize - the church created CEBs - which allowed laymen to carry out some priestly functions - as response to priest shortage in Latin America particularly amongst the poor --->CEB = composed of 10-40 people, located in poor urban neighborhoods and sometimes rural villages, peaked in 1980s at 20,000 CEBs --->most CEBs not politically active and join purely for religious purposes --->CEBs sometimes foundation of protests against oppression (Brazil, Chile, Peru) and help sharpen political skills among poor Influence of Church in LA has decreased considerably since 1980s one cause perhaps is shift from authoritarian to democracy -without human rights violations church feels no need to be political, no common foe = no common cause, and now political activist don't have to hide behind the church they can freely speak in other political organizations The Future of Religion and Politics in the Developing World Initial error of both modernization and dependency theorists was to undervalue the significance of religion factors that account for the resurgence of fundamentalism -rapid modernization has left people psychologically adrift searching for cultural identity -breakdown of village life/erosion of traditional customs/values create emotional void not filled by material rewards of modern life Educated Terrorists biographical study of 173 jihadis from nearly a dozen countries most primary/secondary education 40% professionals ⅔ had at least some college or university education Similarities entre Islamic Revivalism and Progressive Catholic Church both grounded in revulsion over poverty and over government repression and corruption the resurgence of third world religion linked to social political justice pentecostals/charismatics (Evangelical christians in latin america) generally are politically conservative and pursue different lifestyles than progressive catholics ultimately, these groups are not representative of the religious groups from which they derive. bangladesh, indonesia, pakistan, turkey have all had women president - obviously the US hasn't yet, shows that Muslims can be progressive and terrorists don't represent them Conclusion leaders of influential religions ally with country's political/economic elites, becoming pillars of status quo Samuel Huntington credits Latin American Catholic Church with being a leading voice for democratic change during the third wave Many analysts believe maintaining the pluralist values and the tolerance underlying democracy requires limiting the influence of religion on politics Others reject the notion that democracy can only exist under a strict separation of church and state but add there's a necessary restriction of interweaving politics and religion - a degree of mutual tolerance is necessary Avoid sweeping generalizations about religion - consider differences within religions as well as changes over time. The Future: What Role Will Religion Play in Politics of LDCs? Causes of the Resurgence of Fundamentalism - rapid modernization has left people without a cultural identity - the breakdown of village life/erosion of traditional customs/values creates emotional void not filled by material rewards of modern life Conclusion - Generally, the leaders of influential religions have tended to ally with their country’s political and economic elites, becoming pillars of the status quo to further their own agenda or protect their interests/themselves -Samuel Huntington says Latin American Church was leading voice for democratic change during the third wave Cultural Pluralism General Role: Sharply and often violently polarizes nations. When ethnic groups feel they have been denied their fair share of political and economic rewards, they will frequently mobilize to demand their rights. Ethnic warfare is most common in the Indian subcontinent, the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and much of Africa. Cultural pluralism emerged from social processes such as urbanization, revolution in communications and the spread of modern education. Types of Divisions Nationality - a population with its own language, cultural traditions, historical aspirations, and often geographical home - the interests and the values of this nation take priority over all other interests and values - cultural identity Tribe - subnational groups that share a collective identity and language and believe themselves to hold a common lineage. - tend to be a major determinant of support for political parties though other variables (age,urban vs rural, education) may reduce tribal influence - intertribal conflict has sparked violence in sub-Saharan Africa, affecting more than half the countries in that region at one time or another - ex/ Nigeria, Ethiopia, Rwanda, Burundi, Uganda, Sudan, the Congo, the Ivory Coast Race - only used to distinguish others when living in a multiracial setting - obvious example: South Africa (Apartheid) - ruled by white minority (15% of population) until 1994 as blacks were denied fundamental legal and economic rights i.e. vote, hold office - apartheid issues (besides obvious of being denied basic civil liberties) - important sectors of the south african economy (mines) were dependent on black labor so geographically apartheid wasn’t feasible - everything was segregated, but the eight homelands blacks lived in could not support the population - failed after intense international pressure (it became an outcast, particularly after several massacres of peaceful black protesters) - African National Congress (the leading black political party) was legalized 1990s along with two other organizations. Nelson Mandela was freed from jail as were many others. - 1994 new constitution with equal rights for blacks - remaining problems: - many blacks trapped in poverty (most farmland is still owned by whites) - limited money available for rural education/clinics. - high unemployment, increasing crime rates, high AIDS levels - President Zuma promised to satisfy the needs of the poor - there have been riots over inadequate housing and poor urban services in poor neighborhoods Religion - Factors that influence the likelihood of tensions between religious groups - the extent to which one religious group feels ill treated by another - the degree to which any religion regards itself as the only true faith and totally rejects alternate theologies - neither India nor Pakistan, which were born of communal violence, have been free of violence since see P107 for details Levels of Ethnic Tension Measured by the frequency of interethnic friendships and marriages, the degree to which political parties, trade unions etc are ethnically based, and to the extent to which ethnic divisions are reenforced, such as by class. Relative Harmony - Affluent democracies more likely to have amicable ethnic relations because ethnic tensions are ameliorated over time or they have had lots of immigrants - common in Brazil Uneasy Balance - Different groups predominate in specific areas of society - ex/ Malaysia, Malay dominate the political system while Chines minority dominates the private sector - there’s a division of political and economic powers between different ethnicities Enforced Hierarchy - Both political AND economic power are concentrated in the hands of the ruling ethnic group. - ex/ South Africa - see p117 for Indian enforced hierarchy sadness Systematic Violence - mass violence or civil war - sometimes occur when one ethnicity seizes political power and takes retribution for real or imagined past indignities Causes of Ethnic Tensions Ethnic fear and hostility are deeply rooted in society beyond reach of law or modern beliefs. In developing nations these ethnic tensions are able to escalate because their political system lacks the institutions or experience to resolve conflict peacefully. Primordial Cultural Identities - most analysts agree that ethnicity is a social construct not inherent. That is to say it’s how a certain group has come to view themselves over time as distinct from others. Common Experience Class and Communalism Social mobilization - reshapes identity groups Globalization - to the extent that globalization economically benefits certain ethnic groups at the expense of others, it has the potential to sharpen ethnic conflict Elite manipulation - emphasize ethnic identity to build support base - ex/ civil war between Bosnian Muslims and Serbs occurred because politicians used ethnic appeals to replace the recent fall of communism and suddenly everyone had to choose an ethnic identity - before that, intermarriage was common State policy (colonialism, discrimination/preference) State Boundaries - nation and state boundaries fail to coincide - colonialism: - even if the European powers had shown greater ethnic sensibility when dividing states of Africa, many multiethnic nations would have inevitably developed because it isn’t economically feasible for there to be hundreds of tiny nation state (while making the colonies at least) - after the breakdown of european colonialism, it caused ethnic tension because there was no longer european powers to maintain boundaries - ex/ Indonesia invaded East Timor after Portugal left it and killed ¼ the population - After independence ethnic rivalries emerge because there’s no longer a common enemy (the mother country). In the new political order everyone’s competing for state resources (jobs, schools, roads) which brought previously isolated ethnic groups into contact with each other for the first time. Effects of Ethnic Tensions Nearly ⅔ of all of the world’s armed conflict included an ethnic component...ethnic conflicts were four times more likely than interstate wars. At least 20 million have died worldwide since 1945. Violence - Ethnic cleansing, i.e. genocide - Darfur, Rwanda - Civil Wars - Internal conflict is higher than in decades prior to 1990s Political mobilization Political cleavage Resolving Ethnic Conflict In resolving an ethnic conflict, one is restrained by the history and intensity of ethnic cleavages, the degree of previous ethnic cooperation, and by the country’s political culture. Power sharing: Federalism and Consociationalism - designed to create stability by constitutionally dividing political power amongst major ethnic groups - industrialized democracies have had success with ethnically based federalism than in the developing world - ex/ Lebanon - Consociationalism - used where ethnic groups have no particular homelands and live within close proximity to one another - rejects pure majority rule - instead guarantees minorities a political voice to protect them from the majority - divides power to protect the rights of all participants as follows: - 1. the leaders of all important ethnic groups must form a ruling coalition at the national level - 2. each group has veto power over government policies or at least policies that effect them - 3. government funds and public employment are divided between ethnicities, each receiving a number of posts proportional to its population. - 4. Each ethnic group is afforded a high degree of autonomy over its own affairs - one party rule - competitive elections in ethnically divided societies would only encourage candidates to organize along tribal lines, further polarizing the country - by 1964, ⅔ independent Africa had one party system, after which often military rulers took power claiming the civilian rulers were too corrupt or weak to govern effectively Secession - nationalist movements can arise when an ethnic minority is concentrated in a particular region of the country and represents a majority of the population in that area - 3 characteristics: - 1. An ethnic group claims independence. - 2.The ethnic group has a defined territorial base known as their homeland - 3. There is almost always some organized struggle Outside intervention (rare) - may be constrained from involvement by.. - international law, international power alignments, lack of resources, fear of alienating their own citizens - unless invited by a country’s own government, external intervention normally violates the principle of national sovereignty - a country must weigh its own national interest and costs of intervention against their commitment to sustaining human rights abroad - ex/ Darfur p. 124 - troops normally sent in after the worst is over - common type of outside intervention involves neighboring country that supports the ethnic rebellion, aka enhancing the conflict instead of containing it Exhaustion of the warring parties Extermination (genocide, forced integration, ethnic engineering) Ethnic Tensions Fuck With... Shit the rise of ethnic tensions within nations in the twentieth century have hurt/ undermine/disprove Undercut the Modernization Theory Undercut the Contact hypotheses - the theory stated that as individuals of different races, religions, ethnicities came into greater contact, prejudice would decrease - however, the reality is that as interaction increases amongst ethnic groups, occasioned by factors such as urban migration, hostilities are intensified Case Study: Sri. Lanka main ethnic conflict about language and culture, religion was secondary. - Hindu Tamil-speaking population concentrated in the north and east provinces. When Sri. Lanka got its independence from Britain in 1945, the Buddhist Sinhalese (who are ¾ of the population) had political power. Eight year after freedom they made English the first language, making it difficult for Tamil to get government jobs. Their quest for self rule intensified and got equal legal status 1978. 1958 the Sinhalese viciously attacked Tamil throughout the country. 1954 Sri. Lanka promised to send Tamil back to India (from where their families had previously migrated from), which only intensified Tamil nationalism. By early 1980s calling for sovereign Tamil state. The Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) was a secessionist force engaged in guerrilla warfare, terrorism, and finally conventional war. 1987 India intervened militarily in Sri Lanka, resulting in Indo-Lanka Peace Accord for multilingual and multiethnic Sri. Lanka with increased Tamil autonomy. It was rejected by the Sinhalese, in particular the National Liberation Front, which then from 87-89 caused thousands of deaths. They were finally crushed by the government, but the tigers also rejected the accord so they launched a war first against intervening India and then Sri. Lanka. Tamil Tigers were the first to use suicide bombings as a tactic. About 62,000 have died since the war began. A cease fire signed 2002 but then violence picked up again by late 2005. The Tigers were forced to surrender in 2009 when their leader died. The tigers had used civilians as shields, killed President Ranasinghe in 1993, and had over 200 suicide bombings. Case Study: the Congo “African’s World War” 5 million people have died 1990s-2003, as many as 9 African nations (ex/ Rwanda and Uganda) intervened in Congo’s ethnic conflict (which was the Congolese government against Congolese Hutus). Around 5 million have died (from malnutrition, disease, or warfare). Case Study: Kurds see ethnic pluralism chapter. read a lot about them. Ethnic Conclusions Recent wars in Congo, Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Ivory Coast indicate that tribally based violence will continue in the region for some time, however most of the ethnic wars date back to mid 1990s or earlier - few new ones have arose. Ethnic groups (usually minorities) that reside along borders are more likely to rebel than living elsewhere because it’s easy to take refuge in a neighboring country. It’s more realistic to hope for coexistence than harmony amongst ethnic groups after an ethnic conflict. They need to create trauma centers for survivors, multicultural education programs, contact programs to try to establish a dialogue between the survivors and the perpetrators, cross-ethnic economic programs In the long run ethnic groups can resolve their differences through discussion and bargaining in the political arena as long as majority rule is paired with constitutional guarantees of human rights, consociational arrangements or other protections for minorities. Women in Development General Role: Women are generally ignored when it comes to developmental policies. If they weren’t, the world would be a better place. We make up half of technical and professional workers yet less than twenty percent of administrative and managerial employees. ⅔ o the poor in Asia are women. This understanding comes from the emergence of feminism as a social science research, policy planners with a heightened awareness that women play a distinct/ important role in economic/political development, and the growing political/economic power of women in third world nations Gender Empowerment Measure (GEM) - compares women’s economic and political empowerment with men’s Gender-Related Development Index (GDI) - compares male and female school enrollment, literacy, life expectancy. and per-capita income Horrors Women Face in LDCs - rape, mutilation, honor killings - a women is raped every two hours in Pakistan, ¼ are reported - can be charged with adultery and until 2006 need four male witnesses - flogged/imprisoned/stoned to death Where do Gender Roles Come From? Cultural Component - global patriarchy? - suggests biologic sense Development - positive and negative effects - effects change over time, varies across the world - breaks down old economic order - urbanization shifts role of women (makes men more powerful ex/ shift to cash crop agriculture instead of subsistence) External Influences - colonialism - mixed effects - globalization - mixed effects Political and Socio-Economic Status of Women in LDCs Few Educational Opportunities - women were not allowed to attend school under the Taliban in Afghanistan - obviously this fucks up a lot of other things that depend on education, such as one’s income, health, political participation - Latin America has nearly achieved equal gender education, East Asia is slightly behind, while Arab states, Sub-Saharan Africa, and South Asia lag far behind Rural and Urban Roles - women play a greater role in the countryside rather than in the city - women produce 60-80% of food in most developing countries - in africa this has grown substantially recently because of the AIDs crisis/war/ sickness/death that have reduced the male rural populations - men are more likely than women to seek work in the city (except in Latin America) - in Latin america they can only secure low end jobs, often maids/domestic service, which earns minimum wage. 25% of Mexican women urban workforce are maids. - despite this, policy workers often ignore women as heads of the farm, thus developmental planners, policy makers, agricultural service deliverers gear towards men - women cannot access resources such as land, credit, agricultural inputs, technology extension, training/service to increase production capacity - although women are employed in low wage manufacturing work as a country industrializes, over time as the technology improves, wages rise, and the percentage of female workers declines - people (east asia) want women in labor intensive industries like apparel and electronics because employers associate manual dexterity with women, they are not the main breadwinners so they are willing to accept a lower wage, and they’re less likely to join a union and/or participate in strikes - sex tourism - don’t have an education, can’t get a job, need money, turn to prostitution - expands during economic crisis - 60% forced into it, 40% volunteer (Cambodia) Women and Politics Women couldn’t vote in Latin America until mid 20th century. Arab Gulf States recently in 200s (Kuwait 2005). In newly established countries women were normally given the right to vote at the start of self-rule. Women participation in politics in LDCs depend on.. - amount of education, which influences their job choice if they have one - social class, because wealthier women get educated - keep in mind, the spread of education/literacy alone does not guarantee suffrage/ political participation it simply helps it - some countries have reserved seats/quotas for women in Parliament, higher than many developed nations Women and Grassroots Political Activism - community based groups give opportunities for leadership unavailable at national or regional level - more accessible, close to home - focus on things women actually care about, like housing/health care/adequate diets/ education - even if these organizations are led by middle class women, poor women benefit because their political awareness increases, as does their confidence and assertiveness - which all spurred greater participation in the political system - rural groups more likely than urban to stage protests/demonstrations and demand redistributive economic activities like land reform - women’s role in fucking up authoritarian regimes and paved the way for democracy 1980s (3 types of organizations) - feminist groups - primarily middle class women - professionals who had been active in the leftist political parties but found the parties didn’t care about women’s issues enough - neighborhood organizations - represents women from urban slums - organized communal kitchens, infant nutrition centers, etc - radicalized overtime as they demanded more equal distribution of state resources and restoration of democracy - campaigners for human rights - women were allowed greater freedom in this respect because the military governments viewed women as less of a threat to the authoritarian regime - these groups sharply decreased once democracy was restored, particularly close community ties representing the urban poor - grassroots organizations allow urban poor opportunity to put pressure on the government Women as National Political Leaders - obviously severely underrepresented in political leadership position - even those in a political position are often positions associated with female qualities, i.e. education, health, social welfare - often have to present themselves as “Supermadres” i.e. you are all my children to protect, govern with a motherly undertone - more likely to be elected local/state legislature than national parliament - ex/ India, Indira Ghandi served four terms as Prime Minister before she was assassinated in 1984 - even those who are successful (in Latin America and Asia) are often only successful because they came from wealthy families or only served as interim leaders or were widows of a male leader assassinated (or daughters of) - in summary, it’s very difficult for women in LDCs to gain influential political positions unless they were born into a politically/economically elite family Women in Parliament and the Cabinet - women are only 18% of parliament seats worldwide (rose from 10.1 to 18.4 percent) - pretty much equal across developed/developing (exception of Arab States and Nordic) - depends on “supply and demand” - supply = amount of women who meet typical socioeconomic standards of public officeholders in their country - thus LDCs can supply a smaller number of candidates - demand = measure of society’s acceptance of political female leaders - widespread cultural prejudice against the empowerment of women (particularly in Islamic world) restricts the amount of women holding office - S&D for women has increased in recent decades because education has increased, thus women in the workforce has increased, and cultural prejudices have decreased - biggest change stems from gender based parliament quotas or on the list of electoral candidates competing - about 100 countries do this - Latin America is biggest reformer in this respect (9% 1997 22% 2009) - do this through…. - 1. literally reserve parliament spots for them (initially small percentage, particularly in Arab states, but has since increased) - some object because if the quota is small, even if women are allowed to be elected the small number signals to voters that women already have enough representation - i.e. another glass ceiling. great. - however, there are exceptions: Uganda and Rwanda both exceeded female representation than was reserved - in some countries women are not elected to reserved seats they are appointed - usually males choose because they are male dominated institutions (i.e. political parties) and don’t choose the women who women want - rarely become influential political leaders or advocates of women’s causes - 2. individual political parties individually guarantees their slate of parliamentary candidates contains a certain percentage of women - ex/ South africa ANC voluntary quotas - 3. candidate quota legislated to commit political parties a certain percentage of women candidates on their tickets - on average 30% must be women - often ineffective because political parties circumnavigate the rules by nominating women for races they know they will lose - ineffective in countries with proportional representation (PR) because women are often on the bottoms of the list - zipper style quota (introduced by Argentina) requires the list alternate i.e. have a spot every 3 spots on the list - when this happens its more effective than SMD system (single member districts) - women, even with quotas in place, is not enough to effect government policy substantially i.e. if they hold less than 30% of seats - women in the cabinet are more effective because they automatically have more political power - some of the most influential government officials are cabinet members - most hold nurturing positions - Ministries of Social Affairs, Health, Environment, Labor, Family Fairs, Education, Justice - social, cultural, historical forces play a vital role in long term greater female representation in politics - past conflict often leads to new opportunities to articulate debate about gender politics as well as for individual women to live in a different way - women had to assume roles when men died in internal wars (Rwanda, Uganda, Mozambique) Women and Revolutionary Change - revolutions tend to destroy many traditional social structures and values that had previously held women back - ex/ Commie China forbid foot binding on young girls and sale of women as wives/prostitutes/concubines - gave women the opportunity for upward mobility - women and military roles - militaries put aside traditional gender roles because they need soldiers - 20-30% of guerrilla fighters during the Sandinista revolution (Nicaragua) How to Improve Women in Development depends on the country’s dominant cultural values, level of socioeconomic modernization, and type of political system. women do worse under authoritarian regimes than under democratic ones Strategic Method - middle/upperclass led - bring about fundamental, legal equality, constitutional protection Practical Method - things that immediately ameliorate the lives of women - good because it directly effects them short term which matters more to them - problems with this method: - reinforces gender roles Developmental Agencies (that incorporate gender into planning) - Women in Development (WID) - to better address women’s needs in U.S. foreign aid projects - Women and Development (WAD) - Gender and Development (GAD) - take into effect how projects will effect gender - agricultural development, village infrastructure, rule of law/legal system reforms, public policy/reproductive rights, Women are the Shit Because If you don’t treat them like they’re nothing then they make the world better - investment in female education one generation leads to less child mortality the next - countries with high levels of HIV often have higher levels of gender inequality, particularly literacy - increase in female education will decrease the family size -In Brazil, income in the hands of the mom has four times the impact on child’s height for age (measure of nutrition) as income in the dad’s hands -women in government are more prone to address issues such as gender bias, child care, education, divorce law, and more likely to produce legislation in these areas that is beneficial to women Case Study: Pakistan - 18 year old Safi Bibi was raped my her employer. She was blind so she could not identify him. She was pregnant. She was convicted of adultery and sentenced to 30 lashes. Case Study: Commie China - After communism won, they needed to repair the economy so Mao and the All-China’s Women Federation assigned women roles in repairing the economy. Although they were given jobs they were still unequal to males - in both farm and industry women held less skilled lower paying jobs. China’s 1950 Marriage Law allowed women to marry at their own free will and equal rights within the family, however it is not always enforced. In recent years (since Mao died) gender issues have taken a back seat to focusing on economic progress. China has a huge gender gap because of the one child policy - often girls were abandoned by rural families because they needed boys to help work the farm. (95% of Chinese up for adoption are female). Infanticide (gendercide) is now rare, but it’s difficult to really know the truth. Sometimes men kidnap women to be their wives because of the low amount of women available. They did a national campaign to promote the value of female children and loosened family planning In summary, in the short term economic modernization (particularly agriculture) will harm many low-income women. In the long term economic modernization, higher education levels, and modern values will increase women power. In Latin America and Asia, women’s social movements helped destroy authoritarian regimes because they were allowed to demonstrate when men could not. However these groups were marginalized once change actually came. Military in Development General Role: Military coups allow the military to emerge as powerful domestic players, often authoritarian leaders. Soldiers in LDCs often reject any dividing line between political and military activity. Often even if a military isn’t directly ruling, the government is hesitant to pursue policies that may adversely effect the military. The more underdeveloped a nation is and the weaker its middle class, the greater the likelihood the country will have a left of center military - a guardian of the status quo, of the current existing order. examples: Burma, Nigeria, El Salvador, Egypt : all had military coups lead to political instability for decades and/or oppressive military regime - the coups prevented the development of legitimate democracy. Why does the Military Intervene? They Have the Capabilities - strength, organization, training, attitudes, power, weapons, clarity of purpose - “protector of national interests” - Huntington argues governments need to train military with professional values - more sophisticated training will lead to officers with specialized complex military skills while at the same time distancing themselves from politics. This will only occur if the military training focuses on external threats - not internal warfare. Weak Civil Society - weak institutions/political culture - the literal size of the army doesn’t matter (well, if there are no external threats) rather it matters if society has weak civilian political institutions - countries are relatively safe from military coups if the civilian political leaders and institutions are legitimate and elections are the only legitimate way to change governments - this is particularly true regarding the party system; if political parties are entrenched in society then they will gather widespread support, not the military Dependency/Economic Vulnerability - bureaucratic authoritarianism - unable to maintain political stability - economic failure undermines civilian belief in the government and force them to turn to the military who claim they will improve the situation - boom/bust cycles, unstable Neopatrimonialism - want to control everything Military Corporate Interests Elites who endorse civilian control are less likely to fall prey to military coups - the danger with this is that elite beliefs change even faster than political culture does Legitimacy Crisis - if the dictator has a reliance on coercion (repression) to stay in power, then why not just take the power if you can Foreign Intervention? - difficult because need inside actors to prompt coup - it’s usually NOT the foreign’s idea Military and Upward Mobility - only way a person can be socially mobile is through the military - often it’s the poor people stuck in the military who launch the coup to reverse the status quo Huntington: Types of Coups Breakthrough Coups - reformist military coups, use military power to change status quo - usually done by militaries composed of disadvantaged groups - social mobilization - ex/ 1952 Egypt Veto Coups - conservative military intervenes to prevent social or economic change on behalf of the government - do not like civilian reformist government - ex/ 1973 Chile Guardian Coups - less transformative, over narrow issues like if national security is endangered or there is a lot of corruption Types of Regimes Personalistic - in LDCs military officers often seize power without interest in political or economic reform - single charismatic officer with strong personal following is the leader - he uses government plunder to bolster his support among the military and civilians - ex/ Anastasia Somoza Sr. overthrew Nicaragua 1937 for shits and giggles, his family remained in power until the Sandinista revolution - especially common in Sub-Saharan Africa Institutional Regimes - military soldiers who are exposed to politicians/business people/academics through either home or abroad military academies - tend to govern collectively (there may be one big leader like Qaddafi but generally a lot of officers still hold other important government positions and there’s a degree of institutional decision making - more bureaucratic and sophisticated than personalistic regimes - draws on talent of trained civilian technocrats - likely to support aspirations of middle class - more likely to have a coherent political ideology - more likely to champion nationalistic (rather than personal) goals - they pursue four objectives - 1. justify seizure of power by denouncing alleged corruption of ousted government - 2. advancement of own military interests - ex/ higher salaries, better weapons, more money in defense budget - 3. maintaining/restoring order and stability - particularly if the government makes reforms that threaten the safety and integrity of the armed forces - fearful of radicals (leftist unions, guerrillas, etc) - 4. revive and stimulate the economy - coups most likely to happen after an economic downturn - committed to industrialization particularly because it means industrial growth can provide them with arms and supplies that used to have to be imported - brings country pride and international prestige - shows why often in Latin America and Asia industrialists and militaries are allies Bureaucratic Authoritarian Regime - penetrate deep into civil society establishing close links to MNCs and were particularly repressive - i.e. suspended political party activity, crushed labor unions, prohibited strikes, jailed and tortured suspected political dissents - goals of BA in Argentina, Chile, Uruguay, Brazil - 1. crush leftist political parties, unions, guerrilla movements - 2. limit workers wages - 3. create stable environment for investing - 4. work closely with MNC and domestic corporations to control inflation and reinvigorate the economy - 5. depoliticize society and end most forms of political participation - 6. extend the role of the private sector and decrease state economic activity - ex/ no more welfare programs, minimum wage guarantees Revolutionary Military Regimes - extended political and economic participation to formerly excluded groups - tightly controlled mass participation - Africa: policies of cultural nationalism, anti-imperialism, peasant and working class political mobilization, expansion of the state’s economic role, and redistribution of economic resources to the poor - usually lead by middle rank officers (captains, majors, not generals) who have been radicalized - often led by men without significant political skills or advanced education The Accomplishments and Failures of Military Regimes Combatting Corruption - most soldiers are just as corrupt as their predecessors or more so - the idea that the civilian government may not last attracts power hungry politicians Defending Military Interests - successful short term - hurts the economy long term because draws resources away from necessary programs like health care and education for military use - i.e. higher wages so military stays loyal - over time this reduces the military’s cohesion as officers fight over resource allocation amongst themselves and the country - difficult to combat new economic challenges or social problems - this can create a cycle of unstable military coups Patterns in Military Spending - the military gains (resources) in reality hurt the nation - often higher than the country can afford - reduces social and economic investment - many LDCs have huge military budgets in comparison to social expenditures, even if they have not fought an international war in decades - ex/ military consumes 8.4% GDP (Jordan) 7.6% (Ethiopia), however they do have hostile or potentially hostile neighbors - the poorest countries, Eritrea and Ethiopia, spend more on war than public warfare, although they have the greatest need for health and educational expenditures - once democracy was restored in Argentina military spending fell by almost 50% (1983-1987) - studies suggest military expenditures are effected by both regime type (i.e. democracy vs authoritarian) and also other factors - ex/ extent of international and domestic conflict - the absolute level of military spending increased in LDCs except in Sub-Saharan Africa from 1988-2006 - however as a percentage of GDP it decreased over time - this means that GDP is growing faster than military spending is Establishing Stability - generally military regimes are not well suited for controlling civil unrest long term - usually dissolve 5-7 years - fails because needs maturation of political parties and other civilian institutions necessary for long term stability - short term they’re successful because they’re dicks - they can use force & secret service to combat dissent - ex/ in Chile, Uganda, Argentina, armies used mass arrests, torture, and death squads to crush potential guerrilla movements - students and other young people are usually the primary victims Improving the Economy - by reducing strike activity and weakening unions generals expected to lower inflation and attract multi national investment - claim they can make better judgements for the nation because they don’t have to pander to special interest groups - Critics - soldiers lack expertise to manage an economy - allocate excessive funds to defense and wasteful projects - good example = South Korea (successful economic development under military rule after began 1961 for next 25 years) - sustained economic growth and at same time equitable income distribution - all in all, little difference between economic growth of military and democracy Military Withdrawal From Politics - give up power because… - accomplished what they sought ought to, don’t need the power anymore - deteriorating economic conditions that make continued rule unappealing - extended rule has undermined internal military cohesion - particularly true in sub-Saharan Africa where ethnic tensions within the military may increase particularly if one tribe/ethnic group dominates powerful positions - regime becomes so unpopular staying in power would reduce the military’s legitimacy as an institutions - or they lose a war, which obviously delegitimizes them - they act as caretakers - fix the problem and then return government to civilian rule - recently international organizations have taken a stronger stance against military coups - if they are attempted a country may find itself isolated in African Union or Organization of American States until give up power to civilians - outside factors ineffective unless military loses legitimacy at home as well - since 1990s regimes that lose power are more likely to stay out of office than previously when they were expected to return within five years (data 1946-1984) - most military rule is in Africa (Uganda, Rwanda) whereas many Latin American nations have been coup free for 21 to thirty years (Guatemala, Brazil, Ecuador) New Roles For the Armed Forces - necessary (but not in anything politic related) to establish more effective civil-military relationships - new roles include… - combating drug trafficking, antiterrorist activity, emergency relief efforts - however these new roles can cause corruption in the armed forces (i.e. some are well paid protectors of the drug cartels) - also armed forces many use combat terrorism mandates as an excuse to violate human rights and crush peaceful political opposition groups (ex/ Colombia) - civic action - using troops in projects that are beneficial to the civil population, especially the poor, like building roads/medical clinics/sanitation projects/schools - some are sent to be part of the U.N. peacekeeping forces (soldiers from Argentina, India, Pakistan, Uruguay keep peace in places like Congo, Cambodia, Darfur) - sometimes these troops can be at fault for raping and pillaging some of the people they were sent out to protect Improved Civil-Military Relationships - danger remains high today particularly in countries with violent history - ways to strengthen society/reinforce civilian control - 1. educate the military about the importance of civilian control over the armed forces - 2. the nation’s constitution and legal system must bestow the chief executive final control over the armed forces - it is their choice who the defense minister is, not the military’s - 3. the political institutions must give civilian president and defense minister lear and direct control over the armed forces - also the congress or parliament should determine the defense budget and have some level of oversight over the armed forces perhaps through things like committee hearings - 4. Civilian officials control military intelligence activities, important for things like national security and covert operations - ex/ in the past Pakistan military intelligence (Directorate for Inter-Service Intelligence) units acted as independent force in defense, foreign, domestic policy - they even assisted the Taliban and Al Qaeda in hopes of an Afghan ally against India Once They’re in Power…. Can’t Effectively Run the Country: Anti-Politics - run the country like the military: hierarchically, no dissent from below - soon learn can’t do this because need support - winds up politicized, military divided by ethics/beliefs - there is no evidence that the military improves the economy of nations they’re ruling - doesn’t really change much Will They Stay or Will They Go? - two options: institutionalize military rule or abdicate - factors that influence this decision - civilian-military relations - is withdrawal agreed? - will interests be protected - internal/external factors - is there a civilian government structure that can take power? Demilitarization After Civil Conflict - disengage cantonment - disarm - demobilize - reintegrate - security sector reform - dealing with arms proliferation Coup-Proofing Your Country Cut/Weaken Military Budget - however, might lead to coup if done too quickly ex/ Argentina - do this slowly, gradually, to avoid Argentinian situation - disband army (Costa Rica) - weaken army (Panama) Buy Them Off - two options: institutionalize military rule or abdicate - factors that influence this decision - civilian-military relations - is withdrawal agreed? - will interests be protected - internal/external factors - is there a civilian government structure that can take power? Put Them in the Capital ???? Promote them, then quietly retire them or make them ambassadors (Jordan) Give military civilian capacity ex/ Civilian Defense Minister - they will know the true needs of the military, unbiased Robust/Legitimate Political Institutions Penetrate Military with Loyalists or Intelligence Apparatus External Support Delegitimize military power through revealing past abuses Revolutions General Role: Comprehensive political and socio-economic change. Needs internal revolutionary conditions to happen. Usually violent General Issues: don’t always lead straight to democracy, often violence leads to revolutionary authoritarian ruling and instability. Revolutions tend to expand liberties but contract democracy, unless you agree with the revolutionaries Most likely in modernizing, transitional countries than in developed or highly traditional societies this is because as urbanization increases, education and literacy increase, expanded mass media communication stimulates political mobilization widespread, civil society makes increased demands overload the political system What is a revolution? Define it. Huntington says: A revolution is a rapid, fundamental, and violent domestic change in the dominant values and myths of society, in its political institutions, social structure, leadership and government activity and policies. Social Revolutions are set apart from other conflict by two coincidences: societal structural change with class upheaval and political (with social) transformation. Revolution Routes Center to Periphery - first control major cities/capital, then extend outward - examples: Russia, Iran - protests, strikes, riots, Periphery to Center - rebels first begin where regime love is weakest, then expand - examples: China, Vietnam, Taliban - rural based, guerrilla warfare Mixed - examples: Nicaragua, Libya Characteristics of Revolutions External Support Revolutionary ideology to mobilize coherent vision Leninist Structure - military ish hierarchy: Democratic Centralism - organized in cells with limited communication with each other (do what you’re told) to stay discrete so you can’t betray everyone - resistant to penetration Fight to the finish - ruler will want to stay in power Tools of Revolutions - urban insurrection - rural guerrilla warfare - 4 stages - 1. small scale hit and run - 2. creation of liberated zones - 3. mobile warfare - 4. full confrontation - protests, strikes, riots - mobilizes the movement - give publicity - puts on the pressure and provokes the government - encourage civil disobedience - terrorism - more of an advertising than revolutionary tool - intimidates, brings publicities, cheap, easy Happ
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