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Final

GMS450 Final: Final exam crib sheet.docx

2 Pages
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Department
Global Management Studies
Course Code
GMS 450
Professor
Peter Khaiter

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Description
RISK MANAGEMENT Role of PM ▯ managing tradeoff b/w budget, scope and risk Project risk: an uncertain event or condition that, if it occurs, has a positive or negative effect on project ▯ Management: the processes of identifying, analyzing, monitoring and responding to project risk ▯ Type of risk Unknowns (Known Knowns ▯ things we know) // (Known Unknowns ▯ we know but don’t know how and when they will impact) // (Unkown Unkowns ▯ ones we don’t know ) // 1Risk Management Planning ▯ plan for managing activities ▯ Planning how to deal with uncertainty is an organizational problem 2Risk Identification ▯ risks that can effect the project , documentation reviews, info gather techniques ( brainstorm, interview) Source of risk outside control ▯ unpredictable (natural hazards) and predictable (cost of money) ▯// ▯ Source of risk within control ▯ nontechnical (safety), technical (design problems), legal (law suits) 3Qualitative Risk analysis ▯ evaluate seriousness of risk and likelihood of affecting the project (2&3 are carried out together) ▯ scenario analysis is conducted Risk value ▯ Probability * Impact (1-10), 10 = low, 1= high) Failure mode and Effect Analysis ( FMEA) ▯ 1.list ways the project can fail, 2. List consequences and evaluate. 3. List failure and is likelihood of occurring , 4. Ability to detect each failure identified 5. Risk priorty number ( S*L*D) 6. Sort list 4Quantitative Risk analysis ▯developing measures for probability of the risk and impact Objective: illustrate to managers the distribution/risk profile of outcomes of investing in certain projects ▯Use estimates & expected values & simulations 5Risk response planning▯ ways to reduce –ve impact // Contingency plan ▯ backup for emergency or unplanned event//Logic chart▯ flow of activates once a backup plan is initiated {{Threat▯ Avoid, Transfer, Mitigate, Accept //// Opportunity ▯Exploit, Share, Enhance, Accept }} 6Risk monitoring and control ▯ records and evaluating the process to improve risk management ▯Distribution of output models = risk profiles Crystal Ball: Help improve PM understanding of risk ▯ Net Flow = Inflow –Outflow ▯ Discount Factor = 1/(1+k+p) ▯ NPV = NF * DF BetaPERT is the graph used to show the distribution ▯ Simulation helps analyze and study these changes which can derive form technology, economics, and mandates ▯ Risk Simulation ▯ provides insight into the range and distribution of project completion times ▯ Each Colum has an activity ▯ Problem: Simulations and statistics assume that task durations are statically independent. ▯ Dimension of risk ( Cause, Event and Effect) STAKEHOLDERS Data collecting ▯Frequency Counts, Raw numbers, Subjective numeric rating, Indicators and surrogates, Verbal Characterization Data Analysis ▯ (simple aggregation, fitting statistical distribution, curve fitting) used to assign blame, highlight flagged problems, & estimate cost and time.▯ Monitoring data in various forms have to collected, analyzed and reported ▯Data needs to be aggregated manipulated in various ways and compared with planned values ▯ Monitoring system helps m prevent problems ▯In addition to printed reports, information may be given orally in presentations and by virtual ▯ geographically dispersed virtual projects ▯ Communication Types: Information, summary, agreement, design, implementation ▯ Stakeholder Engagement ▯ Unaware, Resistant, Neutral, Supportive Leading ▯ Managing Stakeholders ▯ Stakeholders Register (consists of personal information and communication)// Issue log ( when things will be done) Communication channel: [N(N-1)]/2 ▯ Power Grid helps classify stakeholders into high and low, power and interests. Noise: anything interfering with transmission/understanding of message ▯ Decode: translate message back into meaningful ideas ▯ Encode: translating message so that others understand it ▯ Communication Method: Oral, Written, Action, Graphics (ACTIVE LISTEN) GREAT▯ goals, roles/rules, expectations, agendas, time RESOURCE ALLOCATION Projects compete with each other for resources, one must wait, one will be delayed, tradeoff occurs If resource is used but not consumed, one must wait ▯ If resource is consumed during use, may not be available for other projects Assumptions: Smaller problem to avoid unnecessary arithmetic▯ Problem set in a deterministic world▯ All estimates of task duration are based on normal (or standard) resource loadings ▯ Approaches: The critical path method▯ Fast-tracking a project▯ Project expediting in practice ▯ Opportunities before the project begins & when underway. The critical path method: Normal duration estimates, Normal costs, Crash duration estimates, Crash costs, Crash cost per day ▯ Crashing: Important to make sure the resources required to crash the project are available▯ Technology may be used to crash an activity, Using Ditch Witch to dig a ditch rather than adding more workers. ▯ How to crash: Start with the normal schedule ▯ Select activities to crash, one at a time///Focus on the critical path(s)▯ Select least expensive activity to crash. ▯ Fast-Tracking a Project: An expediting technique in which one phase of the project is started before preceding phases are completed ▯ used in construction industry ▯ appropriate when large proportion of work is routine. Project Expediting in Practice▯ know ahead of time that this project is time-critical and needs to be finished as early as possible. Opportunities Before the Project Begins▯ have one time estimate, buffers and time may be added, can monitor key activities closely. Opportunities When the Project Is Underway ▯ Focus on critical path, reduce scope, contingency time, skip less critical steps, pressure to work faster Resource loading ▯ amounts of specific resources that are scheduled for use on specific activities presented in the form of a list or table Issues ▯ assumes that any resource assigned to an activity will work on that activity 100 percent of the time available. Resource levelling ▯software will move activities so that resources do not exceed their capacity by Using available slack first ▯ Resource Loading/Leveling and Uncertainty ▯ Holidays, vacations, sick days can reduce human resource availability, There may be change orders, resources are not always available Allocating Scarce To Resources to Projects ▯ When demand > supply, software assigns a resource according to some priority rule selected by project manager. To Several Projects ▯ With several projects, we can link them together with pseudoactivities ▯ Pseudoactivities ▯ are those, which have duration but require no resources ▯ allows a set of projects to be linked and dealt with as though it were a single project. Schedule slippage: amount project or set of projects delayed by application of a leveling rule Resource utilization: extent to which resources are over or underworked In-process inventory: amount of unfinished work in the system Goldratt’s critical chain ▯ Projects are completed faster when there are fewer of them struggling for attention ▯ FOCUS: in the Critical Chain is on a single project with multiple demands on a scarce resource ▯ ISSUE: Project due dates are too often unrealistic, too many changes made, tradeoffs. student syndrome ▯Workers: plenty of time to complete the task and therefore delay starting the task Goldratt suggests that the key to resolving this is to schedule the start of new projects based on the availability of bottleneck resources Goldratt proposes thinking in terms of the longest chain of consecutively dependent tasks where such dependencies can arise: critical chain PROJECT CONTROL Monitoring and controlling: collection, recording, and reporting of project information; uses the monitored data to bring performance into agreement with the plan Project selection dictates what to monitor --- Project planning identifies the elements to be controlled ▯ Plan-Monitor-Control Cycle: “closed loop” process, Continues until the project is completed, ▯ Earned Value: budgeted cost of the work actually done, multiplying the budgeted cost of the task by the percentage completion ▯ Conventions Used to Estimate Progress on Tasks; 50-50 (50% complete when initiated and 50% when completed), 100 (100% complete when finished … and zero percent before), Ratio of cost (or time) expended to cost (or time) budgeted ▯Variances: Cost/Spending variance= (Earned value (EV) – actual cost (AC)), Schedule variance= (Earned value (EV) – planned cost (PV)), CPI (cost performance index)= (Earned value (EV)/actual cost (AC)), SPI (schedule performance index)=(Earned value (EV)/planned cost (PV)) ▯ Project Control; the act of reducing differences between the plan and actuality, final element in the planning-monitoring-controlling cycle, ▯ Purpose of Control: Stewardship of organizational assets, Regulation of results through the alteration of activities, Primary purpose is to correct errors, Control the investment, subject to diminishing returns, Consider impact on creativity ▯ Primary Mechanisms by which Project Manager Exerts Control: Process reviews (An analysis of the process of reaching objectives)Ea ▯ Personnel assignment (assignments based on past productivity) Resource allocation (usually allocated to the more productive or important tasks) ▯ Control System Components: Sensor (measure any aspect to control), Standard (must have a standard of items to measure against) Comparator (Compares output of the with the standard), Decision maker (To decide if the difference between measured and the standard is large to warrant attention) ▯ Effector (If some action is required to reduced the difference, the effector must then take action) ▯ Types of Control Systems: Cybernetic control systems (uses all five components of a control system aka steering) Go/no-go controls (predetermined standard must be met for permission continue) Post-control (Applied after the project has been completed/ Purpose is to allow future projects to learn) ▯ Tools For Control: Variance Analysis, Trend Projections, Earned Value, Critical Rat
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