POLI 381 Final Exam Review

11 Pages

Political Science
Course Code
POLI 381
Michael Zekulin

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POLI 383-Final Exam • Nuclear Proliferation- fairly new but important • 5 states acknowledged by the NPT (nuclear non-proliferation treaty) as possessing nuclear weapons: US, RUSSIA, BRITAIN, FRANCE, CHINA • 2 states publically claim to have them, never signed the NPT (not in violation): INDIA, PAKISTAN • Several states rumored to be “nuclear weapon free zones” Israel, North Korea, Iran • North Korea withdraw • Latin America, Africa, Central Asia, SE Asia • Nuclear weapons and civilian nuclear power o Need to refine, make more efficiently/effectively o Enriched Uranium/Plutonium, purity • Two different types: A-Bomb, atomic fission bomb, split atoms and H-Bomb- Hydrogen Fusion (needs fission to start, combinations) • 1 KT= 1000 Kg TNT, 1 MT= 1 million Kg TNT • Explosion, heat, radiation, EMP (electro-magnetic pulse) • Cold war- end to tensions, for a little while, then non-state actors came into play • Reality- cooperation is necessary a) Long known that nukes were destructive- Hiroshima, Nagasaki, Cuban Missile crisis= closest the world ever came to nuclear war b) Concern over “loose nukes”, disintegration of USSR, unstable states, even during the cold war there was foresight that cooperation was required • Pakistan trying to keep up with India, arms race- instability of Pakistan, who controls the weapons and are they in safe hands? • First Nuclear Era 1945-1990 - USA first to perfect (needs testing) - Traditionally defined: states acquiring weapons - Ideas of MAD and deterrence - Suggestion that this was the real reason behind stability during the cold war - Likelihood of war decreases as deterrence increases - Responsibility used, nukes make wars hard to start, thought it was useable • Second Nuclear Era 1990-present - Not only states but other actors as well (terrorists) - Think about deterrent value - Reconciling nuclear power with nuclear weapons - Idea of limiting nukes vs. destroying them - Arms race to get weapons and then how/where to deliver them • Disperse weapons everywhere, USA buried them, USSR put them on trains so they were never traceable • Does deterrence work on substate groups? • US “if you (USSR) expand, we are going to nuke you” o Only reason cold war didn’t end brutally=deterrence- both didn’t want to destroy the world • Thought nuclear era was going to dwindle- now more states are acquiring nuclear weapons/power • Diffusion since 1945 o Especially since nuclear power and missile technology o Since the end of cold war, less inclination political, economic to continue arms control o Rules exist on new nukes- no movement to destroy old • Fears: a) Nuclear proliferation-spread of nuclear weapons can be either vertical (within state) or horizontal to other states b) Spread of information and technology c) Non-state groups getting weapons • Controlling nukes- singing nuclear non-proliferation treaty in 1968, renewed indefinitely in 1995 • Existing nuclear states a) Not to transfer weapons or technology b) Shrink stockpiles • Non-nuclear states- not to pursue weapons, agree to inspections by UN IAEA • Problems- states can simply withdraw, states hiding for years behind civilian programs, anger that nuclear powers have not moved to reduce • Arms agreements: SALT, SALT II, INF, START, START II, SORT, AMB Agreement- putting them away/reduce numbers active • Theorizing nuclear proliferation • End of cold war has not diminished significance of having nukes • Some argue increase in incentives to acquire nukes- especially post 9/11 and irag war • Facts: nuclear states have kept theirs, increase in incidence of states trying to acquire them quickly and in the open • Motivations for acquiring nukes vary: o Unique destructive power, perceived deterrence value, international prestige and domestic motivations, advancing regional/geopolitical objectives • Four events increasing fears of horizontal proliferation a) Post-gulf war 1: realization Saddam was close b) Break up of USSR c) India-Pakistan arms race d) AQ Khan illicit network- father of Pakistani nuclear bomb • Know how to develop nuclear weapon is on internet, but very expensive, time consuming and labour intensive • Estimated 31,055 nuclear warheads in existence, 70,000 @ height of cold war, now 20x more powerful than Hiroshima • 8 nuclear powers but many “latent” nuclear powers • Instability of test ban treaty 1992, if someone breaks agreement, everyone will- learn from others • Other WMD (non-nuclear) o Advantages- kill people but leave infrastructure 1) Radiation and “dirty bombs” inefficient, any radioactive material 2) Biological weapons- spread infectious diseases, bodies/people, defined as micro-organisms or toxins derived from organisms to cause diseases in humans, plants/animals 3) Chemical-make use of the toxic properties of various chemical compounds to kill, depends on conditions 4) Future generation WMDS- biotechnology, nanotechnology (genetic mutations, supersmall) • Terrorism, weapon of the weak • Sending a message • No generally accepted definition, has changed throughout time to reflect what it was felt to represent 1) Politicized nature of the term (loaded term) 2) Reverse engineering problem 3) Too narrow vs. too broad 4) Actor vs. action 5) State vs. substate (weber) vs. individual 6) Purpose of statement • Schmidt jonjman exercise- write down definition of terrorism • Has to be different from crime • General agreement on: a) Requires the threat or use of force b) An impact beyond those immediately affected by the event c) It is political (create political change); not personal or financial gain • Had to be perpetrated by a group? Can I person do this, what if that one person was captured/killed • Conspiracy component, individuals hard to find? • Civilian bombing of democratic societies, justification the people make the government • Israel mandatory military service, all people are, or will be in military • Terror, started from the French revolution- initially used to describe actions taken by a state against other actors • 1968 beginnings of modern terrorism • Affect decision making th o Zealots, assassins, thugees (12-19 ) o Naradnaya volya “peoples will” 19 century czarist Russia o Idea of propaganda by deed- something happens, know why it’s done, sends a message th th o Anarchists- late 19 / early 20 century- creation of manuals, dynamite terrorism- get rid of political power, sees elite society o Anti-colonial terrorism- emergence of the idea that you do not need to win, just avoid defeat- rid state of colonial leader- still around to harass/torment/influence- eventually you can win. Get them to over react and population reacts. Support grows, revolt, then they say not worth it and leave • 1968- origins of modern era terrorism: popular front for liberation- Palestine hijacks El-Al airliner o New, not just transportation but political significance- televised 24/7, publicity, no counter terrorism plans o Use of media to draw attention, want a lot of people watching, not a lot of people dead • Munich Olympics 1972- black September- Palestinian group kidnap Israeli athletes, goes terribly wrong, Israeli intelligence/german intelligence both say it is their jurisdiction o Someone starts shooting- blood bath, no such thing as bad publicity, Israeli sends own security with athletes all over the world • 1970s- left wing groups- defenders of an oppressed people- big in Europe early 80s, still big in latin America • Nationalist-separatist groups- FLQ Quebec, autonomy, or own state • 1980s religions terrorism- Hamas, Hezbollah • 1980s/90s- right wing terrorism: neo-nazi and neo fascist movements, can have religious undertones, minority/majority- economics…timothy mcveigh:Oklahoma city, christain identity movement • The new terrorism- diffuse organization (no longer hierarchy), transnational (not homogenous), amateurism (used to be a job, now join and go do something, no learning curve), professionalism (types of people groups look for, multiple languages, dual citizens, educated don’t stand out), religion (target/opponents increases), role of publicity (kill people for publicity, don’t know who did something=fear), coercion vs. punishment------ 7 things total • Argument: none of these individual elements alone is “new”, it is the combination of these things together which defines the “new” terrorism • Used to be blackmail for a change/purpose, if you do what we want we will stop • Now- punishment for what you are doing • Causes for terrorism: highly individual-reactive o insanity- rational choice, cosmic war, in group don’t want someone who is unstable- want rational people they can control, people able to make a conscious choice, insanity as a cause= way over simplified o Belief in a cause- motivations, nationalism, ideology, religion, challenging legitimacy or status quo o Financial, economic, social disadvantage- problematic as numbers don’t pan out, recent terrorists=middleclass and highly educated, places lacking in comparison to use, but there are way worse places...terrorism isn’t happening in sub-Saharan Africa* o Humiliation, tipping point, personal crisis o External factors- US foreign policy, westernization o Opportunity, social pressure, rewards: individuals join for prestige/financial reward… institutional/cultural pressures  Cyanide capsule- most notorious suicide bombers, tamil tigers-sri lanka, culturally built it* • Terrorism caused by a mixture of factors which varies from individual to individual, group to group • Strategic choices in counter terrorism o Success against one group does not mean success against all others o Negotiations/concessions o Questions of proportionality o Vulnerability of democratic states, works against democracy o Role of media o International community/cooperation • Nationalism as driving force behind conflict •
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