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HIS 343 - Summary of Concepts and Lectures for the Exam.docx

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Brandon King

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HIS 343 NOTES: Establishment of Espionage  Three P’s:  Permanence  Remains a mainstay beyond 1900  Profession  Viewing espionage as a profession, a legitimate career, helps ensure its existence  Power  Espionage is linked to power, catching your opponent off-guard  Method of securing and tipping the balance of power  Intelligence is the method of collection, analysis and dissemination  Espionage in Britain:  Fear of overextension  Consideration of imperial rivalries  Boer War showed British weakness, and the Boxer Rebellion demonstrated the perils of overextension  Five Spheres:  Domestic security, popular culture, international system, impacts of science of war and imperial rivalry  M16/SIS created in 1909  Britain wants to weed out spies internally – popular culture scare of invasion by German spies and other undesirables  Chain reaction of spying between Germany and England  Initial creation of an intelligence system is based on fear and misjudgement of intentions – its created out of the fear that one exists to antagonize the party affected  Intelligence fades after WW1 – it is forgotten  Battle of Jutland:  Naval battle that took place May 1915, British intercept German message about a naval ambush – British are able to deploy and avoid the destruction of their navy – fail to use intelligence beyond the initial alert – fail to capitalize on opportunity, could have destroyed the entire German Navy  British leadership missed an opportunity – demonstrated the idea that intelligence is only good if the decision makers use it properly!  Zimmerman Telegram:  British intercept a German telegram to the Mexicans / Japanese, which encouraged them to side with Germany and to attack the US  British hand the Americans the intelligence, secretly, make them think they discovered it – Americans became very pro-war and want to strike back at Germany  Post WW1:  Intelligence disappears  Development of covert operations – namely against the Bolsheviks  West wanted to remove Lenin – wanted to support Kerensky’s side  Needed quick action to put Lenin down – covert operation seemed plausible  SIDNEY REILLY wanted to overthrow Lenin- then run the country himself  Reilly tried to bribe the Bolshevik soldiers, but they turned his plot over to Lenin  The operation ends in the spring of 1918, it was penetrated and flushed out by Lenin and his Bolsheviks  Creation of the Soviet Intelligence System  Related to Reilly and his madman plot  Bolsheviks never wanted a spy system at their creation, but the actions of the West demonstrated the immediate need for one  Designed an internal security system designed to protect the party from internal threats – THE CHEKA  Created for internal subversion and external wrecking  Fear of counter revolutionaries on the part of the West – felt like they were always under threat internally and externally  Fear of the intelligence system in Russia – system must remain loyal to the party – special relationship  TWO STEPS: Collection, then the info was passed to the leadership for them to make their own analysis and choices  System did not try to find capabilities, just weed out subversion and counter revolutionaries – survival of the party  Soviet system avoids international conflicts – seeks to protect the country at home  Interwar Period – 1930s  British misjudge the German capabilities – they use a PRECONCIEVED NOTION THAT THE GERMANS WILL REARM USING A BRITISH MODEL  Germans have no navy in the interwar period, according to the British intelligence and their assessments  German air force had no long range bombers, and didn’t seem ready to go to war in 1939 – British didn’t see the change in the German strategy – that they would favour tactical air support helping the land army  German lacked tanks, British didn’t foresee a change in strategy – the Blitz, etc  British concluded that the Germans were not ready for war, and this was a realistic assessment based on their analysis BUT it showed the problem with basing intelligence off a standard system  Germany lacked iron ore, rubber, and petro – could not fight a modern war  British failed to understand that Hitler would go to war to get these materials  The British assessment was accurate, but they relied far too much on the mirror assessment and it caused them to misjudge the intentions of the Germans  British failed to account for the irrationality of Hitler – he wanted what he wanted, he wanted war to get the supplies and he saw deterrence as weakness  Operation Barbarossa:  Soviets caught off guard by a large scale German invasion  Soviet intelligence system collected, disseminated and then analyzed by top leaders  Stalin didn’t want to antagonize Germans – believed in the non-aggression pact, and wanted more time to build up for a future conflict  Germans invade Russia, who is unprepared, and caught completely off guard – Stalin was warned, but he refused to believe the warnings – thought they were Western subversion, or his enemies trying to weaken him  Soviets warned by British, Americans, Churchill himself, etc  Stalin believed Germany would not attack Russia until Britain was defeated  Intelligence system failed to judge the intentions of the Germans who were caught in a stalemate in Britain, struggling to deliver the final blow – they turn their attention to Russia  Classic case of the decision makers blundering useful intelligence  German Deception:  Want to convince Soviets that they will not invade  Tell them that the 3 million troops near the border are only to deceive the British  Claim that operation sea lion – the invasion of the channel is their goal  Reassured Stalin who had preconceived notions about the German intentions!  Sorgy a famous spy warned the Russians that war was coming  Stalin refused to believe his intelligence, called them all traitors  SOVIET INTELLIGENCE WORKED WELL DURING COLLECTION BUT BROKE DOWN DURING THE ANALYSIS AND DISSEMINATION PHASE  American Intelligence in WW2 – Pearl Harbour:  Before the invasion – US believed Japan could be isolated from Europe and that a war over imperialism with Japan regarding the Pacific would happen eventually  US was neutral at the time, and they believed they could stay this course for the time being  Japan had made advances in China, mainly in Manchuria, and they believed they were the masters of the Pacific region  Japan believed the US wasn’t a military power – no strong military tradition, not unitary, not homogenous and politically weak because it was a democracy  Yamamoto tried to convince the Japanese not to go to war with US – knew they were stronger in a prolonged war  Japanese want to score a quick victory to discourage the Americans from WW2 – force them to sit out and recover  Pearl Harbour creates the need for an intelligence apparatus – must avoid a Pearl Harbour from ever happening again  Americans intercept enigma in the summer of 1941, begin their code breaking practice  Americans used a MIRROR ASSESSMENT for Japan  PRE-CONCIEVED NOTIONS:  Americans questioned what they would do if THEY were Japan  Japan was seen as economically weaker, overstretched, lacked raw materials for war, they weren’t white?, and the Americans outgunned them  War seemed improbable – would only make an opportunistic move  Roosevelt believed Japan would strike the weak imperial powers in the Pacific, Britain and France  Didn’t think the Japanese could take the US head on, and this was true  US believed Pearl Harbour type of attack WOULD NOT HAPPEN  Why it’s a Failure:  Failure of a young American intelligence system  Too much reliance on SIGINT – didn’t use enough IMINT or HUMINT  Use an unreliable method to assess Japan  The Success of Midway:  Big difference when compared to Pearl Harbour – US was on the defensive now – needed intelligence to sway an advantage in its favour  Americans knew of Japanese positions at Midway, wanted to stage a counter-attack  Japanese had no intelligence on the Americans  Japanese wanted to attack Midway, and to draw the Americans into a trap – Americans knew of it and were able to set their own trap  Allowed the Americans to conduct a surprise attack which crippled the Japanese navy, and commenced their downfall in the Pacific  Japanese lost 4 aircraft carriers, 1,200-1,500 carrier born aircraft, and many pilots / technicians  Americans lost a lot too, but they were able to recover due to a larger war capacity  Allied Deception: Operation Fortitude – North (Norway) South (Calais):  British capture all German agents, they aren’t as good as the British spies – allows them to create a double-agent system – use the captured Germans as double-agents  Twenty Committee XX Committee – Double Cross – agents provide some real information in order to make them seem valuable and useful  Intelligence in Germany was used for political leverage, it was not used to the advantage of the army or the state – caused it to be highly ineffective  The Cold War – CIA:  CIA created in 1947 – early on, heavily focused on SIGINT  Pearl Harbour helped ensure its survival post war – must avoid surprises  Office of Strategic Services (OSS) precursor to CIA seeks to  create spy networks in Europe and Asia,  create a subversive and covert operation branch and it would  provide research and analysis  Early Cold War Scandals:  Gouzenko Affair:  Revealed that the west was vulnerable to penetration – Gouzenko was spying on the Canadians – RCMP unable to deal with it, call in the Americans / British – demonstrated the need for an intelligence agency to fight off enemy spies and to deal with these type of situations  Cambridge Five:  Kim Philby, Donald Maclean, Guy Burgess, Anthony Blunt and Klaus Fuchs all spied on the west and reported their findings  Philby worked for M16 and was in a high position  Fuchs worked on the bomb and passed info on to the Soviets too  All of these men worked for the Soviets  VENONA Program:  Deciphered many messages that were full of secret knowledge of the Americans  Philby warns Soviet spies that they are closed to being captured  Significance:  Soviets had an early advantage over Americans – they had an already established intelligence system with networks and contacts  Soviets were far more efficient at collecting, and had even stole information about the bomb – American urgency to protect themselves against this  VENONA showed the need for a strong intelligence system to deal with threats  Italian Coup:  Fund pro west pro Christian and pro American regimes in Italy to curb communism  By the 1950s the Americans believe they are stronger at intelligence then the Soviet Union – CIA separated from politics, Soviet Union was analyzed only by Stalin  Americans turn away from HUMINT, turn towards SIGINT and IMINT – CIA collected via machines, not humans  Spyplanes would provide hard numbers, and humans would guess the intentions  Americans zigzagged development of the CIA allows them to make mistakes and improve upon them – they develop an intelligence system that is better suited to deal with a multitude of threats, not only a singular threat  Soviet Intelligence in the Cold War:  Heavily relied on HUMINT  No lessons learned from Operation Barbarossa as the blame was on Stalin and it was not up for discussion  Believe the US is trying to end communism  Failures:  KGB struggles to adapt to the Cold War – reliance on HUMINT hurts the Soviet Union – not as effective as IMINT and SIGINT  West reforms its intelligence system, the Soviets do not  Closure of OSS, development of CIA, etc  SU at the mercy of the west if their contacts and networks run dry, which they do  Soviet spies found it difficult to clear all the background, loyalty and security checks  Post WW2, not as many willing volunteers to help the Soviet Union spy on the west  VENONA made it difficult to spy on the west  CIA learns from Eastern Europe failures, KGB does not learn from its failures  KGB fixed on subversion, don’t track international developments as strongly, lack the resources as their system is focused on purely defense  U2 Spyplane helped the Americans maintain superiority in IMINT  SU based their assumptions on ideology which gave them an incorrect image of the US intentions  Cold War was unequal between US and SU – KGB suffered from lack of analytical capability – rely heavily on HUMINT which is the riskiest form of intelligence gathering and the one that is prone to the most mistakes  East German Stasi:  Created in the 1950s, main intelligence service of the East German government  Created out of perceived American subversion  Stasi takes on a KGB type model  ROMEOS (male Stasi agents) would marry West German ladies related to NATO and high power positions in order to gain information  West Germany struggled to penetrate into East – due to the web of surveillance  Sword and Shield of the party, not the nation (like the KGB)  The Golden Age of Covert Operations:  With the arrival of the Soviet bomb, Americans can’t rely solely on military might, see covert operations as a viable method  CIA acting on commands from Eisenhower – part of his New Look policy, military on the cheap  Operation Ajax, Iran 1953:  Classic struggle between US / SU in a proxy setting  Eisenhower backs the Shah in a military coup against Mossadeq  Mossadeq wanted US help, refused by them, turns to SU  Two CIA agents were funded, 100k each – were to cause unrest and build up an anti Mossadeq mob  Mob is out of control, pro-Mossadeq, Americans ask him to calm the mob down as it is threatening Americans there, he complies, new mobs break out, army gets fed up and asks Mossadeq to resign  Zahedi, the pro-west candidate comes to power, rides in on a tank  Significance:  Relatively cheap, compared to sending troops in  Took only 6 months  Handful of CIA operatives accomplished the task  Plausible deniability was maintained  Americans break their democratic commitment to the world, they topple a democratically elected government and cause long term problems in Iran  Americans misjudged the popularity of Mossadeq  Operation Ajax provides the model for covert operations  Operation PBSUCCESS, Guatemala, 1954:  Jacobo Arbenz elected democratica
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