EXAM will BE FOCUSED ON TODAYS lecture and NEXT LECTURE,
Lecture 9, November 22, 2010
Making Sense of the Rise of China: International Relations Theory and
•For example cold war, something political science did not predict in the last century
•Our theories tend to be predictive,
•International Relation theory - state or country behaviour, why do they behave like that
•Taiwan, Republic of China
•De jure Chinese Province (by the letter of law)
•De facto independent state
•1996 missile crisis ( it launches few missiles, to give their heads up)
•2005 Anti-Secession Law (if Taiwan to declare independence we will attack)
•2010 Arms Procurement Bill (china and US have disputes, when US sells military and
missiles to Taiwan.
(Taiwan is in serious trouble, if they decide to launch missiles, this leads back to civil war in
china, Chinese communist party adn Chinese nationalist, were teh first republicans, the
communist win the civil war, which is the founding of communist government in china. The
nationalist, pro-democratic republics flew to Taiwan, in the cold war contects, the world
didn’t recogrnize communist china, but instead it recognized the nationalist republican of
Taiwan. As it happenz, china begins to create diplomatic relation with US. Which leads to
Taiwan lose a seat in UN nations. And it becomes tied with United States, and normalizes
with Canada, Taiwan is no longer a government. Taiwan loses its sovereighty, it is no longer a
recognized nation. Which coins Taiwan as a province of China.
Taiwan is democracy, it has its own election, it has its own taxes, its own government, it
functions as a state, but legally is not. China belive, Taiwan is the province of china, wat also
angers china , US signed the Taiwan relations act, as the US normalizes and accepts china as
sovereign act. Which says, US will defend Taiwan if it is ever attacked.
Some recognize that Taiwan is natural aircraft carrier, to put an aircraft base.
We don’t kno how china will react, will it ever attack Taiwan, we don’t know how the US will
react, when its so spread around in IRAQ and AFGHANITSAN, how will Taiwan will react,
will it keep its status QUO, there is great Uncertainty. One thing is Certain, Taiwan wasn’t
worried about its existence, it didn’t care until 1990s, but one thing we know, they are
Worried NOW, the rise of China, you have to take it seriously.
Chinas rise is the cause of its economic Rise, being 2nd laregest economy in the world, and its
as a matter of time, until it becomes the largerst around the wolrd.
What we KNOW
2) HARD POWER – MILLITARY POWER
•Active military personnel- 1.5:1 (PRC:US) (size of china’s military personell is 50% more
•Land-based weapons – 1:1
•Naval ships – 1:2
•Defence spending – 1:8
•Available military personnel- 5:1 (the number of soldiers 5 times greater than United
3) Soft Power- Influence
(they are putting alot of money in developing countries, showing that China cares)
(Cultural power that china poses, people are very intested, they want to see chinas culture, more
and more kids want to learn Chinese, cultural power that is being to take step, the rise of china’s
soft of power, causes to decline Americas power
4) America’s Decline
“China’s mix of economic engagement and soft power has spurred some fears that western
influence in developing regions will thereby by diminished.. Many Americans in particular are
concerned about losing strategic influence in Asia” Center for strategic and International Studies.
“There is really remarkable, rapid shift of power and influence from the US to China.. Today
china has not only a more vigorous economy, but actually a better functioning government that
the US” Geogre Soros, 2010
The key point, the rise of chains economy, the chains hard power and soft power and the decline
of Americas power, has serious implication to international system. Chinas rise and Americas
decline, is the transformation of the international system.
THE international System
•Sovereighnty – Treaty of Westphalia ( we live in the world of borders, we live in the
system of states, it is this boreders taht demarkes the nations and countries, this nations
states have governments that tax you, there are rules adn laws, and these nation states
defend their borders.) We live in a system in which we respect each others borders.
Respecting each others rules and laws,
Sovereighty means, respect everyones border.
•Power and the distribution of power ( there are different dimansions of power, economic,
military adn hard adn soft power, but the core diffiniton of power is the ability to
influence others, thats POWER. I use my power to make you richer, to protect you, to
legitimate you. The other way of power is like a Stick, both are an influe to get others to
do something u want them to do.
Uneven distribution of Power,
•Anarchic international system ( we live in anarchic international system, an absence of the
world government, as citizens we are loyal to our nation state, there is no world
government, UN is not world government. There is no world police force, no international
taxation system. But we have anarchy, in which the best is to ORDER, it is a system of
ordering, though it is fragile, ex. IRAQ invading Kuwait,
Exam will be focused on todays lecture and next lecture, Making sense of the rise of china: international relations theory and. Uncertain realities: for example cold war, something political science did not predict in the last century, our theories tend to be predictive, International relation theory - state or country behaviour, why do they behave like that. The nationalist, pro-democratic republics flew to taiwan, in the cold war contects, the world didn"t recogrnize communist china, but instead it recognized the nationalist republican of. As it happenz, china begins to create diplomatic relation with us. And it becomes tied with united states, and normalizes with canada, taiwan is no longer a government. Taiwan loses its sovereighty, it is no longer a recognized nation. Which coins taiwan as a province of china. Taiwan is democracy, it has its own election, it has its own taxes, its own government, it functions as a state, but legally is not.