PSY270 JUNE 21.docx

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University of Toronto St. George
Christine Burton

PSY270 JUNE 21, 2012 DECISION MAKING EXAM MC AND SA, 40 MC, AND 13 SHORT ANSWER 50 POINTS, SIMILAR TO ONES SEEN BEFORE DECRIBING THEORY EXPERIMENT SUPORT IT, FILL IN BLANK TRUE FALSE, DIAGRAM, NOTHING HAVENT SEEN BEFORE, CUMALITVE ALL LECTURE AND TEXTBOOK, 35% FIRST 4 AND 35% FROM TEST 2 AND 30 LEAST 2 LECTURE APPROXIMATE, 3 HOUR EXAM REVIEW SESSION, TODAYS GOALS START OFF TALK ABOUT REASONING FIRST NEED REASONING TO MAKE SOUND DESCION ARE WE GOOD AT LOGICAL REASONING, BC OF COGNTIVE LIMITIATIONS DON’T MAKE MOST RATIONALE DESCIONS, MAY LESS RATION THEMES ROLE OF COGNITIVE LIMITATIONS, LIMITED RESOURCES, MAJOR LIMITING FACTOR IF CAN MAKE GOOD DESCION BU TD, REALLY TOP DOWN, AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE CAN, WHILE WHAT HAPPENED IN PAST, DM AND RESON - When making descin more then one option to chose from - Reasoning coming to conclsuioin based on given premissies Reasoning - Invovllves coming t conclusion given premisies - Ways of reasoning getting gto truth - Rationalism – we are born reasonale rationale knowing truth if want to come to logical conclusion use deduction apply all lknowledge and apply to any situation, take knowldeg and apply it - Empirixs, to make descion or reason observe the world put pirces together, get something logical and is induction Cont - Deduction, general principles born with and apply to specific instances - Induction reverse, not know general priniceples obserse instances put together and come up with general principles - Reasoning strageties influences theories of reasoning - Deduction was way we make desicon Socrates, old ideas, very influential, humans coompletley rationale all apply principles always rationale in reasoning and desion making - In mid 1700s push for induction, came about development and interest in science, maybe not born knowin everything hve to observe how world works - Recently only need induction to know truth - Theories started out ration ded and recently to maybe not perfectly rationale maybe induction Deductive reasoning - Cond reasoning – info given take form if then, set of proposition first one is if then statement, second infor of state and draw conclusion - If then, second if not take out garbage, conclusion smells - Given info rpremises know and apply to situation - Deductive spate tuth form validity, truth what think it is true or false, validity is reasoning, logical but not end up being true - If feet then smart, second Andrew has big feet Andrew is smart valid given two premises, but not true - Conclusion need not be true if premises aren’t true - Assume given info is true - If not statement reaosnig valid not true - Cant know truth just by using reasoning strageties Conditional reasoning - Antecedent – if part of statement first part - Consequence second the then part - 2 actions on part affirm or deny, affirm its true, deny it is false - Not actually true or false just saying it is - Affirm happedn, deny didn’t happen Contd - 4 actions do - Affirm ant, affurm con, deny ant, dent cons - Only two of the actions are valid reasoning strageties, two apply to any instances - Affirming ant and deny consequenceonly two take to get valid conclsuin Contd table - 2 stargeties only thing duw come to vlaid conclusion - If ct anima - Afrimng ant this is cat and therefore an animal - Deconf part not a animal not a cat - Affirm con first continue affirming - Deny consequence deny antecedent - This is an aninal therefore a cat - Not cat therefore not animal - Reverse and negate the terms Wason slection task - 4 card, something printed - Rule test, vowel on one side even number on other side - Which one flip to see valid - Flip e affirms the antecedent testing first part true vowle onside vowel - Flipping the seven denies the consequent - This rule only says something about vowels must have even number nothing of consants or odd numbers - What people do not flip J - Majority think have to flip 6 – confirms consequent - Demonstrates not something wrong with logic, only 2 logial answers, however not the way we think Contd - Maybe not think perfectly logicall - We use a confirmation bias – affirm ant and consequent - Not test things are wrong - Not reasoning ligiacal bc only look to confirm not to refutre Contd - 17 and beer, - Beer afrimes antecxednt - Trouble reasoning with abstract tasks Belief bias effect - Not valid reasoning, bc affirming the consequent - Why not cut, why else bleeding - If blleding not bleeding bc ur sad, or sad, it is bc u cut it in real world - Doesn’t matter real world says - If fingrer cut then blled, my finger bleeding then cut - Invalid conclusioin is valid bc of real world - Invlaid use knowledge to think is valid - We know not true in real world only bleed cut, but logic many ways to bleed - Can deny consequence sand therefor not cut Categorical syllogiams - Like cond - Have two premises belive ture - All some or none, then if then - All kid candy, candy sweet child candy - Quite dffiernt to condtional reasoning, there is no logical concluiosn and if is the soliution is inderterminet - Knowldeg of world completely untrue, but not need need knowldeg nothing can about birds and ploanes - Text example all student tirred, some tied people irritable, therefore student are irritabke - Book says invalid, - Two premsuses indeterminant - Not students therefore not conclude they are irritable, howeeer is possible is overlap - 2 possible indertermnet don’t know if overlap - Invalid come up with conclusion is wrong - Big group of a’s, all study get a’s and another group of people not study get a - Cant say those get a are lazy, - Come to conclusion say I don’t know it is invalid - Indeterminet not invalid solution - 2 bowls or marbles, red blue each one, pull out red which one don’t know could come from ither - If say from first bowl it is invalid bc don’t kno - Wmore then one option indetermint - If come up with right answer it is invalid bc u cant Contd - All ants are insects. Some have wings - Best way to use situational models understanding of situation - Premise all ants are insects some instcs have wings - Ants may or may not have wings indterminent - Best way create mental model - Ants all ants insect so some wings to insects llok at model some ants have wings however cn but wings on insect not ants - Don’t know which one, no way teeling them apart Contd - Whether create models is due to cognitive resources - Like attention - Working memory - Visual imagery – a lot of time most easy efficient is use image,poor image ahrd bringup alt models - Prior knowldeg – rely on prior knowldeg know some ants have wings is belief bias know about world indluecnce reasoning, howver some birds airplanes prior knowldeg both way - Need 4 alt models not consider them all exceed congitnve capacity Inductive reasoning - No premsises, no genral prnicples - Observe the world - Come up with staemnbts that may be true - Deucutive come up with sokemthing defiantly valid - Idcuetion never dealing with certainities - Every day wake up sun comes up, until 99 the conclucde reasonable on prior observations the sun comes up tommorw likely given obsetrvation but doesn’t mean happen tomorrow - Inductive reasoning is probabilities - How likely behave Cond - Make desciions rely induc - What happened on past and use to make desion - Heuritstic – to judge likelihood Classic view - Idea we are rationale good at deductive not rely on past knowldeg no belif biased effect - How us logical reaoning make descinion - Make possible outcomes, and factors influence descion and weight tem and come uup descion from all factors - List of factors that influce - Calories, diet or hungry - Tastes – - Lineup – waut - Cost - How far - What ate yesterday - And then outcome of each factor - Once all of that each one and which one meets criteria - Not nmake list of all factors to make descion – this is classical Econimcs approach - Expexted utility theory - Not consider all factor or outcomes - We limit to what important to use - Subjective utility - Utilyt is a measure of value - Cost and taste only - Reduce demands on cogn resources - And subjective probal not know outcome but reasonale guess - Cost of food guess - Helps deals with limited resources - Still assumes people are rationale, once decided go through them rationally Emotions in descion making - Doesn’t explain how make decions bc we r not rationale - One thing influence descions is emotions - 3 kinds of emotions - Expected emotions – fit into expected utility thotry – econ apprch can explain - Which is how we feel if make certain descion - Decide whether or not go out to party
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