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Pop Geo Final Review.docx

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Edmund Okoree

Fertility: Chapter 4 Fertility o The actual reproductive performance of an individual, a couple, a group or a population o Differences in fertility account for most of the variable pattern of population growth at a global scale Measures of Fertility o Live Birth: o The complete expulsion or extraction from its mother of a product of conception, irrespective of the duration of pregnancy, which, after such separation, breathes or shows any other evidence of life, such as a beating of the heart, pulsation of the umbilical cord, or definite movement of voluntary muscles, whether or not the umbilical cord has been cut or the placenta is attached. o Crude Birth Rate (CBR) o The most readily calculated measure of fertility  Number of live births in a yr x 1000 mid-year population o Usefulness  Ease of calculation  Data fairly accurate o Problems  Not totally satisfactory, especially when detailed comparisons are desired  Does not account for age and sex structure of the population  Masks age and sex differentials o General Fertility Rate (GFR) o Relates births more closely to the potential reproductive population - females o The number of live births per 1000 women of childbearing age  Number of live births in a yr x 1000 Number of women aged 15-49 o Age Specific Birth Rate (ASBR) o Allows for a precise determination of where reproduction is occurring in a population  Number of live births in age group y x 1000 Number of females in age group y o Problems  It is a tedious calculation to repeat each year  The necessary data do not exist for many parts of the world o Total Fertility Rate (TFR) o The average number of children that will be born alive to a woman during her life time if she were to pass through her childbearing years o Assumes that women will survive at least until the end of the childbearing age groups, and that they will bear children according to the age-specific rates as they progress through their childbearing years o Gross Reproductive Rate (GRR) o Expected number of female children a woman will have, assuming that women survive through the childbearing age groups and have children according to the prevailing age-specific rates  TFR x female births in a yr all births in a yr o Net Reproductive Rate (NRR) o Makes adjustments for the effects of mortality o Value of less than 1 suggests the potential for decline o Value of greater than 1 suggests the potential for growth Crude or Specific Measure? o Depends on the primary interest of the analyst o If a comparison of two or more regions is being undertaken, or if added detail is required in an analysis of fertility, rates that account for the age structure of the population should be used o If, however, the interest is solely in the contribution of fertility to recent population change, then it is perfectly reasonable to use the CBR Patterns of Fertility o Wide variations in fertility globally o Generally lower in developed countries and higher in developing countries o Lowest rates in Eastern Europe o Highest rates in sub-Saharan Africa Factors Accounting For Variations in Fertility o Proximate Variables o Recognizes the effect that certain social, cultural and economic factors have on fertility  Variables that affect exposure to intercourse  Proportion of people married  Variables that affect exposure to conception  Contraceptive use  Prevalence of abortion  Variables that affect gestation and successful parturition of pregnancies  Extent and duration of breastfeeding o Mechanisms of Demographic Transition o The effect that the process of industrialization and development have on fertility  Urbanization  Increased education and age of marriage for women  Increased earning opportunities for women outside the household  Lower infant and child mortality  More welfare and insurance schemes for the elderly  Greater availability of contraception o Micro-level Explanations o Economic value of children  Low levels of social security for the elderly  High values of children’s labour o Notion of inter-generational wealth flows  Fertility is high where wealth flows from children to adults  Fertility is low where wealth flows from adults to children o Benefits parents get from children  Monetary support  To parents and extended family  Care for aging parents  Survival of family name  Labour support Implications of High Fertility o Challenges for economy o Increasing proportions of the elderly and associated challenges o Graying of politics o Challenges for Countries o Investment in public infrastructure o Erodes economic growth o Increases poverty o Counters achievements in social sectors o Growing scarcity of land and water Future Trends o Fertility patterns will hinge on three developments 1. New Contraceptive Technology  Reduction of potential side effects  Provision of a range of alternative means for different social and economic contexts 2. Degree of Government Commitment to Family Planning  Three variables have been shown to have the strongest statistical link with contraceptive use  Income  Education  Urbanization  Effectiveness of Family Planning approach in reducing fertility remains questionable  Most are clinic based, relying on physicians and other highly trained personnel  Wealthier regions benefit at the expense of remote areas 3. Changes in values and attitudes that control childbearing behaviour Mortality and Population Health: Chapter 5 Mortality: o Decline in mortality has been the most profound demographic change that has occurred in human history o Decline initiated by demographic transition o Fecundity and morbidity o Morbidity: the relative incidence of a particular disease o Fecundity: ability to give birth Crude Death Rate (CDR) o Most commonly used measure of mortality o Number of deaths in a year / mid-year population X1000 Age-Specific Death Rate (ASDR) o Number of deaths in age group t during year/ mid-year population of age group t X 1000 o First year of life characterized by relatively high mortality o Sharp drop to very low but gradually rising mortality o Sharp rise during middle-aged years Infant Mortality Rate o Number of years under 1 year of age/number of births during year X1000 o Sensitive to general well-being o Low in high income countries o High in low income countries Neonatal Mortality Rate (NMR) o Number of deaths under 28 days of age/number of births during year X1000 Maternal Mortality Rate (MMR) o Child bearing complications o Number of women dying from birth complications/number of births during a year X 100,000 o Sensitive to well-being Standardized Mortality Rates (SMR) o Number of observed deaths/number of expected deaths X100 o Used when a population needs to be stratified o By social class o Indicates how far a specified group departs from the norm Mortality Transitions o Mortality rates high for much of human history up to the 19 C.h o Low life expectancy o High infant mortality rates  About 50% of deaths before age 5 o Poor sanitation o Infanticide o Neolithic Revolution: The development of human settlements did not alleviate the situation much o Denser populations o Poor sanitation  Spread of infectious diseases o Trade between settlements o Infectious diseases remained the main cause of death o Declined incidence due to improvements to the environment o Since the 50s, declines in mortality associated with advances in medical and biological sciences o As countries advance through the mortality transition, there are shifts in the ages where death mostly occurs o At the beginning of the transition o Younger age groups at greater risk of death o About 40% of deaths occur among children less than 5 years of age in developing countries o At the latter stages of the transition o The elderly at great disk of death o Less than 2% of deaths among those age 20 years and under in developed countries Epidemiological Transition o Postulates that in addition to decreases n mortality levels and timing of death, development also results in shifts in the major cause of death o Early stages of development o Infectious and contagious diseases o Latter stages in development o Chronic and degenerative disorders th o Up to around the mid 18 C. – infectious and contagious diseases were the leading cause of death around the world o Tuberculosis o Cholera o Diarrhea o Pneumonia o Influenza o Only pneumonia and influenza remained among the leading causes of death in developed countries by the late 1990s. o Massive efforts to control infectious and parasitic diseases since the latter half of the 20 C. o Chronic non-communicable and degerative diseases have emerged as the leading cause of death in developed countries o Cancer o Diabetes o Liver o Cardiovascular o Neurological o Developing countries generally have moved quickly through the mortality and epidemiological transitions o Transfer of benefits from developed countries  Public health knowledge  Medical technology  Medicine Spatial Distribution o Mortality levels vary around the world o Internet o  Russia/South Africa/Chad o Life expectancy levels increased around the world o Even in developing countries, where levels are much lower o Gender differences in life expectancy Determinants of Population Health 1.The physical environment a. Work b. Home c. Neighbourhood 2. Social environment a. Social supports b. Social networks 3. Personal health practices a. Health enhancing habits b. Health eroding habits 4. Individual capacity to cope with stress a. Genetic/biological factors b. Lifeskills c. Competence d. Sense of control 5. Health services a. Availability of care b. Access to care c. Utilization of care 6. Individual economic well-being 7.Societal prosperity a. Social capital b. Economic self-sufficiency o It is important for efforts to improve the status of health of a population to address the entire range of factors responsible for health status o Close correlation between differences in wealth and health status o Need for health interventions to target vulnerable communities HIV/AIDS o Affected mortality patterns and life expectancy worldwide o Threatening to erode the gains made in combating mortality in developing countries o Most HIV cases in developing countries (95%) o Sub-Saharan African countries most impacted by HIV/AIDS o 67% of global cases (2007) o Especially high in southern Africa o Swaziland – 26.1% o Botswana – 23.9% o South Africa – 18.1% o Demographic Effects o Increase in mortality rates  South Africa  16/1000 in 2005  25/1000 in 2025 o Declining life expectancy  Below 40 years in some countries o Potential to reduce population growth rates  Projection of negative natural increase in some countries by 2025  Botswana  South Africa  Zimbabwe o Changes to age structure  Hollowing out of the young adult population in a number of countries Migration: Chapter 6/7 Migration o A permanent or semi-permanent change of residence o Distinct from circulation o Commuting to and from work o Shopping trips o Vacations etc. etc. o Three main components o Crossing of administrative boundaries o Long-distance travel o Permanent or semi-permanent change of residence Types of Migration o Internal o Takes place within the boundaries of a country o In-migrants; out-migrants o International o Moves across international political boundaries o Immigrants; emigrants Measures of Migration o Immigration Rate (IR) o Number of immigrants x 1000 Total destination population o Emigration Rate (ER) o Number of emigrants x 1000 Total origin population o Net Migration Rate (NMR) o # immigrants – no. of emigrants x1000 Total population Laws/Models/Theories 1. Ravenstein’s Laws of Migration o Distance o Majority of migrants proceed only a short distance o Long distance migrants go to one of the great centres of commerce and industry o Steps o from agricultural areas to major cities of commerce and industry o as migrants move out of a town, inhabitants of the surrounding countryside move in to fill their place o Current and Counter-current o each current of migration produces a compensating counter-current o Urban-Rural Differences o natives of towns are less migratory than those of rural areas o Sex Selectivity o females predominate among short-journey moves while males predominate among long- journey moves o Economic Dominance o economic factors, the main cause of migration o Technology o volume of migration increases with improvements in industry, commerce and transportation o Others o most migrants are adults o families rarely migrate out of their country of birth o large towns grow more by migration than by natural increase 2. Lee’s Push-Pull o Provides a schema of the factors that could explain the volume of migration between any two places o Migration, the result of push and pull forces working on the individual o People see places as having positive, negative and neutral attributes that they use to calculate whether or not to move o Focuses of four sets of factors o Factors associated with the area of origin o Factors associated with the area of destination o Personal factors o Intervening obstacles  Financial costs of moving  Emotional cost of geographic separation from family and friends  Psychological insecurities of starting afresh in a new environment o Intervening Opportunities o Opportunity is the most important factor responsible for migration o Migration flows directly proportional to number of opportunities at destination o Inversely proportional to number of opportunities in intervening places o Place Utility o The relative evaluation of places that people make from the stand-point of their own self- interests that are the foundation of the migration decision o Focuses on the individual, rather than place per se o Stages o Problem identification o Examination of alternative place-related solutions o Comparison o Decision-making: to stay or to move o Problems o Assumes a rational decision-making process  Availability of information  Evaluated in a systematic manner o Assumes that the decision-making process is accessible to study  Migration is only partly accessible to study because of the complex interplay of factors o Sees migration as a free decision  Does not account for forced migration 3. Todaro’s Model o Attempted to explain the apparent anomaly between rising urban unemployment but continued high rates of rural to urban migration o Based upon expected rather than real income differences between urban and rural economies o Potential migrants would consider the available market opportunities and choose the one which maximize their expected gains from migration o Also focused on other non-economic factors o Social factors  Desire to break away from traditional or social organizations o Physical factors  Climate and natural disasters o Demographic factors  Rural population growth o Cultural factors  Security of extended family based in urban areas  Attraction of “bright city lights” o Communication factors  Improved transportation  Urban education systems  Impact of media o Focused attention on the rural sector and on rural development  Increases in urban jobs or incomes will lead to more rural to urban migration, compounding unemployment problems there o Measures to solve urban unemployment should, therefore, be undertaken as much in rural areas, to improve conditions there o Drew attention to the linkages between rural and urban sectors and to the centrality of migration in any programme of integrated development Terms and Concepts o Distance Decay and Intervening Opportunities o The friction of distance reduces the volume of migration between areas o The number of persons going a given distance is directly and inversely proportional to the number of intervening opportunities o Step Migration o Involves moving from a rural area through a series of increasingly large urban centres before arriving at the area of destination o Pattern of moves:  Farm – town – small city - metropolis o Chain Migration o A process whereby family and community links are formed between places o Results in increased migration of family members and friends to area of destination o Spatial In-filling o Emigrants are replaced by immigrants o Stream and Counter-stream o Reciprocal movements between places Migration Selectivity o The most widely operative factors are age, sex, education and occupation o Age  Dominance of young adults  Career  Family formation o Sex  Generally, males predominate migration streams  In general, women tend to migrate at slightly younger ages than men o Education and Occupation  Education enhances a person’s potential to migrate  Increased income  Range of job opportunities  Ability to evaluate more information about the potential comparative value of places  Increased education, income and job mobility appear to reduce an individual’s ties to a place by heightening expectations and making the future more important than the present Stages in the Development of an International Migration System o Stage 1 o Temporary labour migration of young workers o Remittance of earnings o Continued orientation to homeland o Stage 2 o Prolonging of stay o Development of social networks  Need for mutual help o Stage 3 o Growing consciousness of long-term settlement o Family re-union o Increasing orientation to host country o Emergence of ethnic communities o Stage 4 o Permanent settlement  Secure legal status, eventual citizenship  Political exclusion, socio-economic marginalization The Mobility Transition o Identifies five phases o Pre-modern Traditional Society o Early Transitional Society o Late Transitional Society o Advanced Society o Future Super-advanced Society o The world is in a phase of accelerated migration that will be replaced with a return to greater sedentariness as technology reduces the need for spatial mobility Policies and Future Migration o Migration will remain important in affecting the size, distribution and composition of populations around the world o Increasing number of restrictions will be imposed in an attempt to stem the flow of free migration o Most modern immigration policies seem to have started from a desire to restrict the entry of so-called less desirable individuals Canadian Immigration o Canada seen as an immigration country o 18.4% born outside the country o 2 to Australia o The majority of Canada’s growth comes from immigration o different from other developed countries which derive their growth mainly from natural increase o Importance of immigration to Canada o “Canada desperately needs immigrants to deal with its ageing populations. Immigrants are a crucial part of the future of Canada, economically and socially”.  John Anderson  Canadian Council of Social Development.  Toronto Star, Jan. 22, 2003 Theories of Assimilation o Melting Pot o Biological merger of various immigrant groups and a blending of their respective cultures into a more indigenous type o Anglo-conformity o Complete renunciation of the immigrant’s ancestral culture and the adoption of the behaviour and values of the charter group o Cultural Pluralism o Preservation of the communal life and significant portions of the culture of immigrants alongside that of the host society’s o Multiculturalism o The ideals of cultural pluralism are carried out through the policy of multiculturalism o Political doctrine that officially promotes cultural differences as an intrinsic component of the social, political and moral order o Establishment of a novel working relationship between the government and ethnic immigrants o R
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