ECON-E 202 Study Guide - Oligopoly, Income Statement, Malcolm Baldrige National Quality Award

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5 Nov 2014

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Economics

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ECON-E 202

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Regardless of data type are all composed of. Describe a single variable or describe and compare more than one variable. Describe a single variable, describe and compare more than one variable, sort trivial from important. 11/12/2012 what is the current amount of employed and unemployed adults (july: in millions: An overview occupant employment and wages in 2011, construction workers and carpenters have some of the largest job losses since 2007. The sum of frictional + structural + seasonal unemployment. 94-95% employment the natural rate of unemployment a type of long run unemployment long run =full employment. The relative price of basket is expensive 3% more. Monetary value of all final goods and services and total income. Which of the four categories of the expenditure approach to measuring. So we can measure the changes in quantity. if nominal gdp is greater than real gdp then there is. 1) inflation: deflation, positive economic growth, negative economic growth, none of above .

Related Questions

1. You are given only three quarterly seasonal indices and quarterly seasonally adjusted data for the entire year. What is the raw data value for Q4? Raw data is not adjusted for seasonality.

Quarter Seasonal Index Seasonally Adjusted Data

Q1 .80 295

Q2 .85 299

Q3 1.15 270

Q4 --- 271

2. One model of exponential smoothing will provide almost the same forecast as a liner trend method. What are linear trend intercept and slope counterparts for exponential smoothing?

A. Alpha and Delta

B. Delta and Gamma

C. Alpha and Gamma

D. Standard Deviation and Mean

3. When performing correlation analysis what is the null hypothesis? What measure in Minitab is used to test it and to be 95% confident in the significance of correlation coefficient.

A. Ho: r = .05 p < .5

B. Ho: r = 0 p >.05

C. Ho: r ? 0 p?.05

D. Ho: r = 0 p?.05

In decomposition what does the cycle factor (CF) of .80 represent for a monthly forecast estimate of a Y variable?

A. The estimated value is 80% of the average monthly seasonal estimate.
B. The estimate is .80 of the forecasted Y trend value.
C. The estimated value is .80 of the historical average CMA values.
D. The estimated value has 20% more variation than the average historical Y data values.

5. A Wendy's franchise owner notes that the sales per store has fallen below the stated national Wendy's outlet average of $1,368,000. He asserts a change has occurred that reduced the fast food eating habits of Americans. What is his hypothesis (H1) and what type of test for significance must be applied?

A. H1: u ? $1,368,000 A one-tailed t-test to the left.
B. H1: u = $1,368,000 A two-tailed t-test.
C. H1: u < $1,368,000 A one-tailed t-test to the left.
D. H1: p < $1,368,000 A one-tailed test to the right

6. As the sample size from a population increases, for a given level of significance what happens to the null hypothesis rejection region and size of the t-table value?

A. The rejection region and the t-table value generally gets smaller for sample size below 31.
B. The rejection region gets larger and the t-table value generally gets smaller for sample sizes below 31.
C. The rejection region remains unchanged while the t-table value gets smaller for all sample sizes.
D. The zero mean hypothesis region gets larger and the t-table value gets larger as well for sample sizes below 31.

7. You obtained autocorrelation LBQ value of 18.58 for the 12^th lag from a data sample. Are the data significantly correlated at the lag examined or not? You want to be 95% confident in your answer.

A. Yes. The data are significantly correlated through the 12th lag.
B. No. The data are not significantly correlated through the 12^th lag.

C. No. Only the 12 lag period is not correlated.

D. You cannot tell since the number of sample observations is not provided.

E. The p-value is above .05 so the data is correlated.

8. Sometimes forecasters get lazy or forgetful and do not check the significance of XY data correlations and use the X variable to forecast Y. What is the result of this?

A. Type 2 error
B. Autocorrelation error
C. Type 3 error
D. Type 1 error

9. Do error measures indicate the statistical significance of forecast model variables?

A. Yes. They move in the same direction as statistical significance.
B. Yes. As error measures decrease the variable significance increases.
C. No They indicate only the magnitude of estimate error.
D. No. They indicate only the statistical significance of a forecast or fitted values.

10. In exponential smoothing what is the weight of the alpha coefficient for a time series data observation from the 3^rd previous period if the original alpha value is set at .8?

A. The weight cannot be calculated since the data observation is not given.
B. The weight is zero since the alpha value is set relatively high.
C. .548
D. .0064

11.Given the data series below for variables Y (Monthly Inventory Balance) and X (Monthly Sales) are they significantly correlated at the 95% confidence level and how can you tell?

Ending Inv. Bal. Y		Monthly Sales X
1544		5053
1913		5052
2028		7507
1178		2887
1554		3880
1910		4454
1208		3855
2467		8824
2101		5716

A. Yes. The correlation coefficient is .873 that is greater than .05.
B. Yes. The correlation p-value is .002 which is less than .05.
C. No. The correlation coefficient is above the p-value.
D.No. The correlation p-value is greater than the 95% confidence level.

12. You have forecast the sales for your company for the last 12 months and the forecast residuals are shown below. Are these residuals to be considered random?
Residuals

-24

-348

-892

-62

-378

-489

-342

490

578

198

A. Yes, since the residuals randomly vary in magnitude.
B. Yes since the residuals are positive and negative and vary in magnitude.
C. No, since the residuals are stationary and vary in magnitude.
D. No, since the residuals indicate positive slope.

13. Given the residuals in problem 12 above what is the RMSE for the forecast?

A. -101.0
B. 411.8
C. 169603
D. 220.1

14. Which form of exponential smoothing can result in a na

CLASS NOTES ARE LOCATED WHERE IT SAYS CLASS NOTES!

During the early 1700s, a sailing ship is wrecked on an uninhabited island in the Caribbean Sea. The passengers and crew survive but lose all their possessions. There is no source of fresh water on the island, but coconut palm trees are fairly abundant, and the survivors are able to drink milk harvested from coconuts. There are no mammals living on the island, but many birds roost there, and these become a source of meat. There are a number of mango trees that provide fruit. A long, tough form of sawgrass grows in a number of different places on the island. This grass can be woven into knee-length sleeveless shirts, which are the basic type of clothing for people of both genders. The people on this island have developed a simple system of direct market exchange. Currently, two mangos trade for five coconuts, six coconuts trade for a pound of meat, and three pounds of meat trade for four shirts.

1. Use a formula that was stated in class, and in my notes, to calculate the total number of distinct relative prices in the islandâs economy. Note that when this formula is used to count relative prices, any given pair of goods is considered to have only one relative price. For example, if we count the price of a pound of meat in mangos as one relative price, then we donât count the price of mangos in pounds of meat as a second relative price.

(Class Notes: In a barter economy with markets, each good should have a market price, per unit, in terms of each of the other goods: baskets of fish per bushel of apples, bags of coconuts per bushel of apples, etc. A price of this type â units of one good per unit of the other good â is called a relative price (alternatively, a barter price). If there are different goods traded in an economy, then there turn out to be relative prices for a merchant to keep track of, in each market he visits. Each of the n goods has unit prices: one for each of the other goods. We divide by two to avoid counting reciprocal duplicates: if it costs 2 bags of coconuts to buy a bushel of apples, then it costs 1/2 bushel of apples to buy a bag of coconuts, and so on. )

2. Use the price information you are given to calculate all the distinct relative prices. Remember that the prices we are interested in are unit prices. A unit price is the price of a single unit of one good in units of another good. For each pair of goods, use the order that produces the highest unit price. In the case of coconuts and shirts, for example, if the price of a shirt in coconuts is higher than the price of a coconut in shirts, then report the first price but not the second one. Note: In calculating unit prices, donât worry about issues of divisibility. Assume that any good can be divided in any way, so that fractions or decimals can be components of unit prices.

3. For each relative price you just calculated, calculate the relative price if the order of the two items is switched. (In the scenario above, for example, you would now calculate the price of a coconut in shirts.) What very simple formula can you use to do this? Explain briefly.

4. Now suppose the people on this island start using mangos as money. The relative prices on the island do not change, and the absolute prices are consistent with them. a. Use a formula stated in class, and in my notes, to calculate the total number of absolute prices in the islandâs economy. b. Report these absolute prices.

Class Notes: ( In a monetary economy, in contrast, each good has a single absolute price (alternatively, a money price), which is its unit price in terms of money: dollars per bushel of apples, etc. If we assume that one of the n goods is used as money, then a merchant only needs to keep track of absolute prices. As long as there are more than two different goods ( ), it turns out that , and the difference between these two numbers gets very big as n gets large. Even if there are only 10 different goods, then there are 45 relative prices and only 9 absolute prices. And if there are 100 different goods, which is a more realistic number, then there are 99 absolute prices but almost 5000 relative prices.)

5. Comment briefly on the potential advantages and disadvantages of using mangos as money, using our list of the desirable properties of money as a guide.

6. Suppose you are a merchant on this island, where mangos are used as money in the market (see Item 4 above). A competing merchant who dislikes using money in transactions is willing to trade coconuts for shirts (or vice-versa) directly, at a rate of five coconuts per shirt. Explain, carefully and completely, how you could use this merchantâs willingness to trade these two goods, at this rate, in order to make a profit of one unit of money for yourself by (1) using money to buy units of a good in the market, (2) trading those units of the good to this merchant, in exchange for units of another good, and (3) selling those units in the market for money. Identify the items traded and the quantities, and verify the amount of the profit. Finally, explain what you would need to do in order to make a larger profit (double, for example).

Question 1

Which of the following approaches to understanding and predicting consumer behavior depends primarily on the knowledge and experience of a firm's employees and its suppliers?

		Test marketing and price experiments
		Analysis of historical data.
		Direct consumer surveys.
		Expert opinion.

Question 2

In which of the following situations would reliance on expert opinion as a basis for a managerial decision be most preferred?

		When the product being marketed is relatively new.
		When the level of economic activity can have a significant effect on the demand for the firm's output.
		When the product can be packaged with a variety of price and quality combinations.
		When the business in question serves as a supplier of inputs to other businesses, especially in multi-product situations where other strategies may be prohibitively expensive.

Question 3

The approach to analyzing consumer behavior that asks consumers to rank and choose among different product attributes to reveal their relative valuation of different characteristics is called:

		conjoint analysis.
		contingent valuation.
		the hedonic estimation technique.
		a direct consumer survey.

Question 4

All of the following are limitations of direct consumer surveys except:

		the possibility of response biases because survey respondents may not want to reveal their true preferences.
		the possibility that the type of questions asked may unintentionally bias the respondent's answers.
		the likelihood that respondents will deliberately and systematically mislead interviewers.
		the possibility that consumers' responses may not reflect their actual behavior in the market place.

Question 5

Which of the following approaches to understanding and predicting consumer behavior does not actually solicit any information from potential customers?

		Expert opinion.
		Test marketing.
		Analysis of historical data.
		Conjoint analysis.

Question 6

Data collected on a sample of individuals with different characteristics at a specific point in time are called:

		panel data.
		cross-section data.
		time series data.
		none of the above.

Question 7

Which of the following approaches to understanding and predicting consumer behavior provides the most insight into how consumers can be expected to respond in an actual market setting?

		Test marketing.
		Conjoint analysis.
		Expert opinion.
		Analysis of historical data.

Question 8

An approach to analyzing consumer behavior in which consumer reaction to different prices is analyzed in a laboratory situation or a test market is called:

		non-price experiments.
		focus groups.
		price experiments.
		none of the above.

Question 9

Data collected on the same observation unit at a number of points in time are called:

		panel data.
		time series data.
		cross-section data.
		none of the above.

Question 10

A measure of how much the coefficient would vary in regressions based on different samples is called:

		F-statistic.
		standard error of the estimated coefficient.
		t-statistic.
		partial F-statistic.

Question 11

The test statistic used to test the hypothesis of whether a regression coefficient is significantly different from zero, holding all other independent variables constant, is called a(n):

		t-test.
		F-test.
		multicollinearity test.
		autocorrelation test.

Question 12

Regression analysis that analyzes the relationship between one dependent variable and several independent variables is called:

		cluster analysis.
		correlation analysis.
		multiple regression analysis.
		simple regression analysis.

Question 13

The ratio of the regression coefficient to its standard error is called:

		F-statistic.
		t-statistic.
		coefficient of determination.
		partial F-statistic.

Question 14

The coefficient of determination will range between what values?

		-1 and +1
		0 and 1
		-3 and +3
		none of the above

Question 15

The range of values in which we can be confident that the true regression coefficient lies within a given degree of probability is called a:

		confidence interval.
		logistic regression.
		prediction interval.
		none of the above.

Question 16

The estimated regression equation is Y = 10 + 2.5X, if X =0 than the predicted value of Y is equal to

		2.5
		7.5
		12.5
		10

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ECON-E 202 Study Guide - Oligopoly, Income Statement, Malcolm Baldrige National Quality Award

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