BUSI 2301 Chapter Notes - Chapter 3: Trend Analysis, Time Series, Liquid Oxygen
9 Sep 2015
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Lo2 describe at least three judgemental forecasting methods. Lo1 identify uses of demand forecasts, distinguish between forecasting time frames, describe common features of forecasts, list the elements of a good forecast and steps of forecasting process, and contrast different forecasting approaches. Demand forecasts the estimate of expected demand during a specified future period. Forecasting horizon the range of time periods we are forecasting for. Features of forecasts: assumes causal system (past future, rarely perfect, more accurate on larger groups, accuracy decreases as time horizon increases. Elements of a good forecast (accurately) use of the. System: useful time horizon, easy to understand & use, compatible, meaningful, reliable. Steps in the forecasting process: determine purpose of forecast, establish time horizon, 3. Select a forecasting technique: obtain clean and analyze data, make the forecast, monitor the forecast. Considers soft" information such as human factors, experience, gut instinct. Time series models extend the pattern of data into the future (future like past)
