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HSS2381 (30)
Chapter 5

HSS2381 Chapter 5: Chapter 5: Statistical Inference summary
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Department
Health Sciences
Course Code
HSS2381
Professor
Eleanor Riesen

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1 Chapter 5: Statistical Inference The Probability of an Event: Probability of an event (p) is expressed as a proportion Ex: The probability of drawing a red card from a normal shuffled deck: Ways red event can occur = 26 Total number of possibilities = 52 = p = .50: Theres 5050 chance that card will be red suit Probability of Consecutive Events: Formula: p = p (A) p (B) The probability of drawing two red cards consecutively: p (red, then red) = p (red) p (red) = .50 .50 = .25 = p = .25: chance of drawing 2 red cards in a row Probability and Hypothesis Testing: Null hypothesis (H0) deck is fairnot rigged Alternative hypothesis (H1): Deck is rigged What is the probability of drawing 10 red cards in a row if the null hypothesis of a fair deck is true? p = .50 .50 .50 .50 .50 .50 .50 .50 .50 .50 = .001 Only 11,000 draws of 10 cards from fair deck would yield all red cards Probability as an Area: Probability distributions graph probabilities of all events that could occur; similar frequency polygons Total area of a probability distribution = 1.0 Probability Distribution Example Probability of drawing a picture card (Jack, Queen, King, Ace) from a deck of 52 cards p = .077 (1 13) p = 1.00 of drawing a numbered card or a picture card p = .077 + .077 + .077 + .077 + .692 =1.00 Probabilities for a coin toss: 1 head .5 2 heads.25 3 heads.125 4 heads.063 5 heads.031 6 heads.016 7 heads.008 8 heads.004 9 heads.002 10 heads .001 Probability Density Functions: Probability density function: Probability distribution for continuous variables Normally distributed continuous variables under the curve can be determined by converting raw scores to Z score
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