Statistical Sciences 1023A/B Chapter 14: Chapter 14 - Understanding Probability and Long-Term Expectations
23 Mar 2017
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Probability applies to situations in which we can envision observing results over and over again. Buying lottery ti(cid:272)ket e(cid:448)ery (cid:449)eek and o(cid:271)ser(cid:448)ing if it"s a (cid:449)inner. Observing births and noting if they are male or female. Probability: the proportion of time it occurs over the long run (called the relative frequency of that particular outcome) Determining the probability of an outcome: (two methods): Make an assumption about the physical world a. b. E. g. (coins) = we assume that they are manufactured in a way that they are equally likely to land with heads up or tails when flipped. E. g. (lottery) = we assume that they way used to draw the winning numbers gives each number an equal chance. Determine the probability by observing the relative frequency over many repetitions of the situation. Personal probability = the degree to which a given individual believes the event will happen. Must also fit together in certain ways if coherent.
