Party Identification and Campaign Dynamics
Won largest conservative majority in 1984
Issue about Free Trade Agreement with USA
How Might Campaigns Matter
What voters will decide
Whether people feel it's important to go out and vote
About the effects of issues on people
Are they worth caring about?
Why should I pay attention to such mundane issues?
A change in the issues that voters think about
It's important because if one cares about childcare and one thinks an election
is about childcare, then one might think that the party whose position is
closest to ones is worth voting for
Vote choice is driven by the most important issues voters care about
If a party can change people's might about an issue
e.g. 1988 election trying to change people's opinion about Free Trade
PID: Unmoved Mover
Stable over the course of the campaign
Can PID impact other things
How does it interact with other things happening during the campaign?
Those that are not identifiers, do they act differently than those who do identify?
Do they look/act the same?
Do you have differences across identifiers?
Two variables --> one affects the other
If introduction of third variable, does the relation change?
If there's a change in the original slope (before 3rd variable), then it's an interaction
Conservative vote intention and identification