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February 22nd, 2018
Lecture 13: Party Identification and Campaign Dynamics
How might campaigns matter?
●See changes in
PID: Unmoved mover?
○Is it stable over the course of a campaign?
○Does PID move other things?
○Is PID important in how it interacts with other things?
■Identifiers vs. non-identifiers
○You can think about PID as a independent variable then a dependent variable
●Interaction effect: the effect of one variable on another affected by another variable
1988: Free Trade Debate
●1988 was when the major free trade debate happened
●NAFTA was being debated at the time
●Johnson says that voters will follow the leader
●The campaign can have an equal effect on both sides
●Remember that party ID iself is unmoved according to Johnson
●Remember that vote intention is different than party identification
●During campaigns people are not changing their ID that much
●People thought that free trade was much more important at the end of the election (before
people care about other matters more). This is why we call the election of 1988 the free
●Campaigns don’t just change everyone’s mind, but they matter more than the Columbia
School thought they would