FIN 300 Lecture Notes - Lecture 11: Dow Jones Industrial Average, Efficient-Market Hypothesis, Dividend Yield

77 views7 pages

azurelouse708

10 Dec 2016

School

Department

Course

Professor

For unlimited access to Class Notes, a Class+ subscription is required.

Document Summary

Security prices change without predictable trends or patterns. Stock prices seem to go up or down on any particular day, regardless of what has occurred on previous days. Therefore, one can"t use past patterns to predict future price changes. Random walk is proof of market efficiency. Since all information is rapidly incorporated into the price of the stock, all stocks are correctly priced and no investor or issuer can earn excess returns. Weak form: market prices reflect all information contained in past market prices. Semi-strong form: market prices reflect all publicly available information. Strong form: market prices reflect all known information. Paradox of technical analysis: let"s say that technical analysts spot the upward trend in a stock"s price. Results: as soon as a price trend becomes apparent to technical analysts, they immediately eliminate it by trading, this means no one can consistently forecast the future from past price activity.

Related Questions

Please write a 250 word response to the below discussion. Please provide 2 scholarly sources.

The efficient market hypothesis states that share prices reflect all relevant information, and that it is impossible to beat the market or achieve above-average returns on a sustainable basis. There are many critics of this theory, such as behavioral economists, who believe in inherent market inefficiencies. The Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) states that securities are very efficient in reflecting the truth about a stock. In other words, when new information is available about a stock, it is incorporated into the price adjustments of the stock quickly enough to reflect the actual state of the market (Malkiel, 2003). EHM debunks the idea that financial analysis and forecasting are useful tools to shop for stocks. In other words, because securities accurately reflect the status of that stock, it is not possible to use financial analysis to find an undervalued stock or predict trends in the market in order to buy low with the future insight to sell high. There are three levels, or degrees, of the efficient market hypothesis: weak, semi-strong, and strong. The weak form assumes that current stock prices reflect all available information, and that past price performance has no relationship with the future. In other words, this form of the hypothesis says that using technical analysis to achieve exceptional returns is impossible. The semi-strong form says that stock prices have factored in all available public information. Because of this, it's impossible to use fundamental analysis to choose stocks that will beat the market's returns. Finally, the strong form of the efficient market hypothesis says that all information, public as well as private, is incorporated into current stock prices. This form of the efficient market hypothesis essentially assumes a perfect market, and isn't plausible when there are insider trading restrictions (VanBergen, 2011). Yes, I believe that financial statement analysis can provide a significant advantage to an investor. The key is that empirical analysis, specifically statistical models aimed at forecasting future trends based on historical data, are simply another tool to be taken in to account. They are not a single source of the definitive answer. But, through the use of high power computing and mathematically rigorous modeling tools, forecasting is a powerful tool to provide additional insight to decision makers to include the financial industry. In support of my position, (Malkiel 2003) reports the findings of several empirical studies which demonstrate positive statistical correlations in short-run return analysis and the successful prediction of up to 40% of variation in long-term return analysis through time-series statistical models, which are able to take into account seasonal fluctuations (Malkiel 2003). One experimental study demonstrated with statistical significance that the Ohlson model provides predictive ability for future stock price movements (Lee, Chen and Tsai, 2014).

crimsonmammoth143

Question 25

1. What does the efficient market hypothesis require?

1. Financial markets to be competitive.

2. Prices to adjust rapidly.

3. Prices of undervalued securities to fall.

	a.	1 and 2.
	b.	1 and 3.
	c.	2 and 3.
	d.	All of these choices.

3 points

Question 26

1. Which of the following does the strong form of the efficient market hypothesis suggest?

1. Inside information will not lead to superior investment results.

2. Inside information will lead to superior investment results.

3. Studying financial statements will not lead to superior investment results.

4. Studying financial statements will lead to superior investment results.

	a.	1 and 3.
	b.	1 and 4.
	c.	2 and 3.
	d.	2 and 4.

3 points

Question 27

1. Which of the following is the least broad-based measure of stock prices?

	a.	NASDAQ market index.
	b.	Dow Jones industrial average.
	c.	S&P 500 stock index.
	d.	AMEX market value index.

3 points

Question 28

1. What is dollar-cost averaging?

	a.	Periodically buying a round lot of stock.
	b.	Periodically investing a specified dollar amount in a stock.
	c.	A means to increase the average cost basis.
	d.	A means to ensure a positive return.

2 points

Question 29

1. Stock dividends cause:

	a.	The price of a share of stock to rise.
	b.	The price of a share of stock to fall.
	c.	The value of the firm to rise.
	d.	The value of the firm to fall.

2 points

Question 30

1. Which of the following occurs when a stock has a two-for-one split?

	a.	The price of the stock doubles.
	b.	The firm's assets increase.
	c.	The firm's liabilities decrease.
	d.	The par value of the stock is reduced.

3 points

Question 31

1. Dividend reinvestment plans offer which of the following advantages?

1. Deferment of federal income taxes.

2. A convenient means to accumulate shares.

3. Dollar-cost averaging.

	a.	1 and 2.
	b.	1 and 3.
	c.	2 and 3.
	d.	2.

3 points

Question 32

1. When the Federal Reserve seeks to expand the money supply, it:

	a.	Sells securities.
	b.	Buy securities.
	c.	Runs a deficit.
	d.	Runs a surplus.

2 points

Question 33

1. The sum of cash, currency, and demand deposits is:

	a.	M1.
	b.	M2.
	c.	M3.
	d.	M4.

3 points

Question 34

1. If the Federal Reserve lowers the target federal funds rate:

	a.	The discount rate rises.
	b.	Liquidity in the banking system is increased.
	c.	Security prices fall.
	d.	Required reserves are also decreased.

3 points

Question 35

1. The anticipation of inflation suggests that the investor should:

	a.	Buy bonds.
	b.	Anticipate higher interest rates.
	c.	Avoid real estate investments.
	d.	Sell stocks of gold companies.

3 points

Question 36

1. The current ratio is unaffected by:

	a.	Using cash to pay a dividend.
	b.	The collection of an account receivable.
	c.	Selling inventory for a profit.
	d.	Selling bonds and using the funds to finance inventory.

2 points

Question 37

1. Which of the following are true as the debt ratio increases?

1. Fewer assets are debt financed.

2. More assets are debt financed.

3. The ratio of debt equity increases.

4. The ratio of debt equity decreases.

	a.	1 and 3.
	b.	1 and 4.
	c.	2 and 3.
	d.	2 and 4.

2 points

Question 38

1. The technical approach suggests that future stock prices are forecasted by:

	a.	Past stock rates.
	b.	Financial ratios.
	c.	Accounting statements.
	d.	Monetary policy.

2 points

Question 39

1. The Dogs of the Dow strategy:

	a.	Forecasts the direction of the Dow Jones averages.
	b.	Suggests buying the Dow stocks with the highest dividend yields.
	c.	Outperforms the S&P 500.
	d.	Suggests buying the lowest-priced Dow stocks.

3 points

Question 40

1. Behavioral finance combines aspects from which two fields in an attempt to identify human traits that affect investment decisions?

	a.	Accounting and finance.
	b.	Finance and psychology.
	c.	Physics and finance.
	d.	Finance and marketing.

cyanant553

FIN 300 Lecture Notes - Lecture 11: Dow Jones Industrial Average, Efficient-Market Hypothesis, Dividend Yield

Document Summary

Get access

Related Documents

FIN 300 Lecture Notes - Lecture 10: Bmo Nesbitt Burns, Dividend Yield, Efficient-Market Hypothesis

FIN 300 : study guide

FIN 300 Chapter Notes - Chapter 12: Dividend Yield, Fisher Equation, Risk Premium

Related Questions