PSY 308 Lecture Notes - Lecture 8: Polymath, Psy, Fallacy

• School: Ryerson University
• Department: Psychology
• Course: PSY 308
• Professor: Dana Williams

Document Summary

People used to believe that gods and goddesses helped people with their luck in. Cardaro: first one to figure out the odds by counting; renaissance man. The measure of how often we expect an event to occur in the long run, however, we make poor predictions about the short run. Ex: how to determine the probability of heads to occur: # of ways a head can occur: 1, # of possible outcomes: 2, = 50% (maximum uncertainty) Ex: what is the probability of rolling an even number on a dice: # of ways an even number can occur: 3, # of possible outcomes: 6, 3/6=50% Is the % of trials that an event will occur; good for predicting long run outcomes but not short run. Ex: chances of getting an a on the next test. People believe to be more confident in situations when they are given control.