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Lecture 10

Sociology Part 2 Lecture 10.docx

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Sheldon Ungar

Sociology Part 2: Lecture 10 o Demography: 1850: pop = 1 billion o Limited by starvation, disease, war – population was kept suppressed by both things. Baby boom: starvation is not really a problem, disease isn’t and war is not destructive. o 2000 Pop= 6 billion. We’re over 7 now but its moving slowly. Huge population explosion. Digital revolution- what is it doing to us? o In the past, 14 century is often called the horrible century, you had famine and the black death. 1 third of Europe’s population died during that period, and labor became valuable since less people survives. o The field that really took off sociology. Demographers work on their own. Population is a base thing for the society. Baby boom and baby bust effects us o The growth of world population: its basically flat, stays 100 million forever, it rises slowly. Last 500 years, it really took off. o Other graphs that may have same basic shapes: technological advancement, more productivity– very vague, eating – food graph- starvation holding back population all these years, surplus of foods. Birth rate and death rate. – death rate goes up slowly, but birth rate goes up relatively faster. Life expectancy has gone up. Energy production had to go up this amount – have to have the food and the energy. o Methane concentrations during the past 1000 years: the curves indicate that both food and energy is needed to sustain people’s lives. o How many is too many? o The Malthus Theorem: if births go unchecked – keep going up, the population will outstrip the food supply. – starvation. o He was wrong. This did not happen. We’ve been able. Using up the oceans and etc. happens too much. Using agriculture way too much, It may crash. The amount of fertilizers usage has a limit as well. o Population determinants: Fertility (2.1= replacement level) – having children, giving birth. 2.1 giving deaths etc. o Mortality- deaths o Migration: doesn’t affect the planet but the countries. For nation migration includes moving in and out. o Huge Irish migration took place, and Britain did not offer help. Some let them leave, some let them come in. o First population explosion: tied to industrialization in the West – Europe, not western centric, parts of Russia, north America and etc. o Explained by: demographic transition theory – ½ questions on the exam about this ****** o Demographic transition theory: Birth rate – getting fast then slow – nothing’s going anywhere. The birth rate goes up, above all the death rates fall quickly. If the death rate falls, only few people survive and they reproduce. Birth rates going up and death rates are falling – the critical gap occurs. Its early industrial. Has a lot to do with cleanliness, - getting better food, Starvation was a huge thing but now its not. o People learn that the birth rate has changed, children becomes less industrialized, receiving higher education, children can stay home o The huge increase in the West, not as big as the rest of the population but there’s a big influence o 2 population explosion: post WWII in the “south” o Peaks in 1970’s o Lead to predictions of 16 billion or more on the planet. o In many of the Arab nations, much more than half of the population is under the age of 20, creates problems with politics for having most of the young population. Without western medicines, you provide enough support, the diseases are often not healed. o World population, 1750-2150 (in billions, projected) – graph: it shows that after 2000, there’s no growth but negative growth. Russia is also in the same line, hospital may increase the chance of dying. The amount of less developed countries are increasing. The huge population boom occurs in 1950s o 2 population problems: o North: aging populations – consequences: not reproducing, Russia and Japan are key examples. They are providing bonuses for having kids. Cause they need populations. After the fall of the soviet union, the population didn’t increase as much. It’s a big immigration country. U.S in the 70s and 80s – the reason why the have advanced military technologies, because they were worried about the Chinese warfare. o Age pyramids for Canada: got lots of young people as you get older supporting the old. But if you have 20 people working for everybody who’s retired not hard to support. o Baby boomer: soon will have more young people than the old people working. Covering the cost? By Immigration. Every govt. doesn’t want to increase taxes. o South: not worried about supporting the aging but supporting the young o Malthusian scenarios – unsustainable growth. Poverty is likely, Outmigration is one of the solutions. Less job opportunities. Can also destabilize the countries political matters. o South: surprise reversal o Population growth starts to decline in late 1970s o Fertility rate drops from 6- 4 in two decades (2.1 stable population). The yare not stable but there’s this rapid turn around. They were becoming richer that time, having more kids are problematic that time o But: demographic momentum: Egypt has more than 50% [look up] young kids, has to reproduce thus population will keep rising. In Japan, it falls below replacements or even in Russia o World Population, 1750- 2100 (in millions) – so many young people when they reproduce, it keeps going. Native born Canadians are below replacement. The French Canadians had a huge birth rate but it declined now too. o Quebec is not a favorite place of the immigrants but they still go. French population likes to keep it all “French”. o Political agenda: population on and off the agenda. In very many strange way. China told U.S to buzz off. China had nothing to do with population. The U.S varies on the issue depending on who’s on power. Democrats: push for controls – thing such as abortion, pregnancy, rape. Had big issues with United Nation. They were free. o War: in the 18 and 19 all took census of the population but they kept it secret. French kept it secret, knew their population is not as big as Germany. o 1960s moral panic – experienced massive growth, limits to growth, population bomb, Paul Ehrlich- ecologist, need food and water, seen everyone as “mouth”. He predicted doom and got almost everything wrong over the 4 years but kept on going. vs. Julian Simon: an economist sees everyone as “hands” – productivity, getting more Einstein’s. IT won’t. if the price goes up, it won’t work normally. So keep the prices down. Other thing predicted: was called the green revolution: applications of pesticides and fertilizers. Allowed food production to go up hugely. Rice, potatoes – going up in productivity thus stay in control. o The theory of pick oil: on the way up , they discovered so much more oil. o The term population bomb- the growth of the East China and India. India was supposedly more from the Western side. The population bomb of starvation, Easterner would put pressure on the westerners for food and etc. – concerns o Population impact formula: = size X affluence X technology – ON THE EXAM o Affluence: that’s how much wealth you have, fare amount of affluence. We use a lot of energy. Compared to Sweden, we use half of the energy, o Technology: usage of it, efficiency, it goes with Cars, they pollute less, more cleaned, We’re so affluent that there’s more cars and we drive them more. o The Western diet: the richer countries move to western sides. U.S continues coal production, even China does it. But Pollution level is getting worse in China. What to do with old computers? – huge amount of dumping. Big junk spots in the oceans – plastics and such o Size  effect of sheer numbers o Affluence  use more o Technology  environmentally friendly o China will lead the world for the electronic advancements. o Population controls: population dropped off dramatically, China instituted one child policy, - unintended consequences. Works in various ways. For each family only old child was allowed. It used to be worse in the country -side. o The communist regime – countryside they had i
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