Value at risk (var) model: all the banks use this. Risk analysis: var of million with 99% confidence. Measurement of market confidence: spread and became the standard operating unit. We make decisions all the time in the context of uncertainty. We make decisions today which will impact the future : we make these decision under uncertainty, aging society. Cost > benefits: financial regulation, preventative health care, lessons learned from sars. Risk is the (im)probability of a certain outcome. The insurance industry has been quite accurate about their probability of risk. As a result, california doesn"t have home insurance b/c they live along the fault line probability of earthquake. Atomic energy of canada ltd: 1952 counted for 15% of all of canada"s energy force, created 31k jobs. Three mile island (1979) & chernobyl (1986) What animates politics are these details (aka black swans) Government mitigate low probability, high impact risk. But it is also being about subjective: emotional, individual risk attitude.