RSM341H1 Lecture Notes - Lecture 5: Frequentist Probability, Sample Space
Document Summary
Early investigations motivated by card games, parlor games. Intuitive probabilities come from a primitive procedure: a. b. c. Probabilities that are not easily defined by this primitive procedure are less intuitive. Principle of insufficient reason: assumption that each outcome should be equally likely because there is insufficient reason to say any outcome should be more likely than another. I do not know that proposition p is false so it must be the case that p is true. No reason to say that heads is more likely than tails so can assume each outcome is equally likely and probability of heads is 1/2. Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. Evidence is that which leads us to know some p. Evidence of absence is knowing the negation of p. Not knowing p is true does not automatically lead us to knowing that p is false.
